The Future of China?, Where India left in dust? Options

[richasiankid]

Some rhapsodise just how great India will thrive on multi-religious democracy (unlike Israel or mid east). Others fancy India becoming like HK or S'pore securing itself via English facility against evil Sinic hegemony.

But in the end it's a lesson where everything's sweet & swell India where it doesn't measure up, where it still can't even secure the basics and where human capital matters:

http://www.zshare.net/download/97642747c4df52c8/ (light end of tunnel; patience patience!)

PISA 2009 report for (against?) India?

Cities of India are still at the very very bottom, while cities like Shanghai are wowwing off the charts.

Yet another data point we're different.....

[Hugham]

zshare.com is bad site, I fail to download from it multiple times.

Can you upload it to the more friendly site like mediafire.com?

Thank you.

[richasiankid]

zshare.com is bad site, I fail to download from it multiple times.

Can you upload it to the more friendly site like mediafire.com?

Thank you.

No worries. Here's the same file from mediafire.

And here're the relevant data in case you still can't access it:

(1) Reading



(2) Science



(3) Math



Note more the distribution than the average.

* * *
PS- I always give credit when it's due and I give Steve Sailer credit from America who pointed out the obvious here.

The news that two states in India took the PISA test of 15-year-olds' school achievement in 2009 and bombed raises the question once again of China. As everybody remembers from a year ago, 2009 scores from Shanghai were released and they were higher than any country in the world. But what about the rest of China? Obviously, Shanghai is a dazzling place, but a lot of China is still stuck knee-deep in rice paddies. What about them?

I stumbled upon this year-old blog post by Anatoly Karlin of Sublime Oblivion, which relays a big hint:

As regular blog readers know, I think that educational capital and more broadly average IQ levels are one of the key – and frequently under-appreciated due to political correctness – determinants of economic development and whether or not convergence to developed country levels is even possible. Its much higher educational capital is one of the key reasons why I think China will continue doing much better than India in development, regardless of its “democratic deficit.” However, many people argue that China’s human capital must actually be quite low, because it doesn’t spend much on education, resources are bare in the provinces, statistical fudging under unaccountable governors, etc.
The recent results from the international standardized PISA tests in math, reading and science will make this an increasingly untenable position. Shanghai got by far the best results out of all the OECD countries (never mind the developing ones). . Now while you might (rightly) argue Shanghai draws much of the elite of the Yangtze river delta, the Financial Times has more: “Citing further, as-yet unpublished OECD research, Mr Schleicher said: “We have actually done Pisa in 12 of the provinces in China. Even in some of the very poor areas you get performance close to the OECD average.””

Since countries like the US and France get scores “close to the OECD average”, this means that the workforces soon to be entering China’s economy, even from its poorest regions, will be no less skilled than those of leading Western economies (note too that the numbers of Chinese university graduates are soaring). And with China’s massive population, four times bigger than America’s, its road to superpowerdom must be all but guaranteed.

Okay, there are a few leaps of faith there, but that's still news worth knowing. At minimum, it reduces the chances that the Shanghai numbers were a con job. At median, it suggests that we check twice before reflexively equating China and India. At maximum, it suggests, as Karlin says, that "resource constraints" are going to be perhaps the big issue of the 21st Century. It's a little hard to be certain what "Even in some of the very poor areas you get performance close to the OECD average" means, but it sounds pretty good.

The logic of using international test scores to predict future wealth is not that the causation runs only in one direction, from high test scores to wealth. Obviously, it runs in both directions. (For example, affluent Chinese have traditionally hired tutors to raise their children's test results.) But, if there are a whole bunch of poor farm kids in inland China who are scoring like kids in Europe and North America right now, well, that's worth knowing.

My only comment is perhaps, just perhaps, environment doesn't mean everything. Why, afterall, is Japan and indeed Taiwan or HOng Kong don't score as high as poorer Shanghai?

Don't miss the comments.

[Hugham]

Quite surprising or not quite surprising at all about India?

I wonder what is actually going on in India?

They have a very glorious past, I wonder what is so difficult for them to organize good national wide education?

Is India problem in the corruption or in the inability of the Indian people itself?

If corruption is the problem, how can they have almost the same rank with China in corruption index level? (and in some report better than China?)

the Financial Times has more: “Citing further, as-yet unpublished OECD research, Mr Schleicher said: “We have actually done Pisa in 12 of the provinces in China. Even in some of the very poor areas you get performance close to the OECD average.””

I wonder when will OECD publish China 12 provinces result?

Does someone has the data here?

I can't wait to see the data!!!

[Hugham]

My only comment is perhaps, just perhaps, environment doesn't mean everything. Why, afterall, is Japan and indeed Taiwan or HOng Kong don't score as high as poorer Shanghai?

Don't miss the comments.

For the basic education, probably Shanghai education is quite well.

But in the higher education or real education related to real application, teach in university level, like making car, video games, architecture, etc.

We are still lack far behind......

[newties21]

Because India is a very diverse nation racially and genetically.

At the top they can produce smart people like chess champion Visawanathan Anand, but at the bottom.....not so good......and the distance between the top and the bottom is huge......

[AnybodyKiller]

Because India is a very diverse nation racially and genetically.

At the top they can produce smart people like chess champion Visawanathan Anand, but at the bottom.....not so good......and the distance between the top and the bottom is huge......

Source for that info? I hear differently according to my readings regarding Indian genetics.

The noticeable genetic divergence of India from other regions is coupled with low levels of genetic divergence across the subgroups within India. Excluding the relatively divergent Parsi population, Fst in India had similar magnitude to the level of divergence among cosmopolitan groups in Europe and East Asia

Low levels of genetic divergence among Indian populations

Also...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y-DNA_haplogr...ian_populations

Pay attention to the "Upper, Middle and Lower Caste" readings.

Why then in this country with low genetic divergence is there such high disparity?

Could it be something else? I'll leave you all to fill in the blanks.

[richasiankid]

Quite surprising or not quite surprising at all about India?

I wonder what is actually going on in India?

They have a very glorious past, I wonder what is so difficult for them to organize good national wide education?

Is India problem in the corruption or in the inability of the Indian people itself?

If corruption is the problem, how can they have almost the same rank with China in corruption index level? (and in some report better than China?)

I've seen comments on India's one problem being diversity, at least intellectually, i.e. you can't have a nation-wide coherent education policy if people are different to begin with (much like where America's heading today with blacks and browns). Thus India may hone in on that tiny razor-thin layer of elites and milk the best leaving dust to the rest.

At least that's theory.

Yet, at the same time, and as I pointed out, if you look back at the proportions from PISA I just quoted - you actually do not see an elite dragged down by illiterates; most of them are practically, well, dunces. I think this collective lack of human capital - in spite of some H1B exceptions - is a question Indians will have to ask themselves.

Another related but not totally unrelated question to ponder: how is it possible that India with all its headstart - i.e. all those Brit style institutions, English facility, as well as democracy - wind up being so far behind China? It's a very very inconvenient data point for some. How can India doing everything right and yet not overtake China? Afterall, think Hong Kong: it's not quite "democracy" but at least the former two variables in some ways prevailed. Again that's just not the case for India.

And never mind Brits but not even American free-style markets helped when India opened up - i.e. when conditions are supposed to have equalized - look at the now famous Indian-Chinese trajectory on a log scale: they're drifting apart even as way back as in 1990s when India supposedly to have been burdened by late-start in liberalization:

Which btw is what an Economist article from Dec 12th sort of suggested again anyway.

Still?

But perhaps especially in retrospect....

I wonder when will OECD publish China 12 provinces result?

Does someone has the data here?

I can't wait to see the data!!!

Neither do I, but knowledge is certainly preferable than spin or ignorance, and I would also bet they will score lower than Shanghai, but certainly not as abysmal and frankly shameful levels as India's debut (unlike Shanghai's). There is at least one small study which shows Tibetan children having lower intellectual potential than Han Chinese that I'm aware of, and given a country as huge as China's I wouldn't be surprised if there are geographic variations/differences where non-Han do not score at equal levels as Han.

For the basic education, probably Shanghai education is quite well.

But in the higher education or real education related to real application, teach in university level, like making car, video games, architecture, etc.

We are still lack far behind......

I think the crude nouveau riche mentality of industrial America +/- mass production resonated in 19th century aristocratic British minds as well; I do also think China is not without precedent in East Asia.

[elleX0]

Source for that info? I hear differently according to my readings regarding Indian genetics.



Low levels of genetic divergence among Indian populations

Also...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y-DNA_haplogr...ian_populations

Pay attention to the "Upper, Middle and Lower Caste" readings.

Why then in this country with low genetic divergence is there such high disparity?

Could it be something else? I'll leave you all to fill in the blanks.

Of course literacy is important. Of course the quality and content of their curricula is important. Of course genetics is important. But what is more important is the culture of the people and their perception and their attitudes. And culture is formed over centuries based on the traditions, customs, and the religious doctrines of the people. Does the culture promote progress or stagnation of the peoples? To understand this it is necessary to join up the dots in anthropology.

The differences of culture is already apparent in the progress some nations make and others do not.

[AnybodyKiller]

Of course literacy is important. Of course the quality and content of their curricula is important. Of course genetics is important. But what is more important is the culture of the people and their perception and their attitudes. And culture is formed over centuries based on the traditions, customs, and the religious doctrines of the people. Does the culture promote progress or stagnation of the peoples? To understand this it is necessary to join up the dots in anthropology.

The differences of culture is already apparent in the progress some nations make and others do not.

Right!

But to everyone else (especially richasiankid) don't interpret my words as I think we're all identical. That's ridiculous.

Science is starting to discover more and more than different populations have predispositions towards certain talents.

Niolitic peoples in Africa are predisposed to have the makings of good long distance runners
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilotic_peoples

Maori(Polynesian) predisposed to have better "AQ" Aggressive qualities.
Even Rommel the famous Desert Fox said "Give me an army of Maoris and I'll conquer the world!"
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/once-were...4802890439.html

Then of course, there are other sides of the story.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Maori-do-not-have-w...63/Default.aspx
It is pretty offensive because some say "innately criminal" instead of "innately good warrior instinct"

This post has been edited by AnybodyKiller: Dec 23 2011, 03:27 PM

[elleX0]

Right!

But to everyone else (especially richasiankid) don't interpret my words as I think we're all identical. That's ridiculous.

Science is starting to discover more and more than different populations have predispositions towards certain talents.

Niolitic peoples in Africa are predisposed to have the makings of good long distance runners
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilotic_peoples

Maori predisposed to have better "AQ" Aggressive qualities.
Even Rommel the famous Desert Fox said "Give me an army of Maoris and I'll conquer the world!"
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/once-were...4802890439.html

Then of course, there are other sides of the story.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Maori-do-not-have-w...63/Default.aspx
It is pretty offensive because some say "innately criminal" instead of "innately good warrior instinct"

That is why we are different. And it will always be so. Genetics determines many factors and environment determines the other factors. And it takes many, many generations to change cultural attitudes.You will notice that most cultures have inherited their characteristics from their neolithic development of their ancient past, because that is how the survived as a creature. That is why, Tigers will always be predators and killers no matter how you try to domesticate them, and swine will always remain swine no matter how many time you bathe them.

This post has been edited by elleX0: Dec 23 2011, 12:25 PM

[richasiankid]

Because India is a very diverse nation racially and genetically.

At the top they can produce smart people like chess champion Visawanathan Anand, but at the bottom.....not so good......and the distance between the top and the bottom is huge......

Thanks, this is what another poster emailed to me in the past (not from this forum, not on same topic) as well. And as a chess player everyone calls him Vishy....

I am - perhaps I should say I was - also inclined towards this view. The distribution of the data above of this latest PISA release would argue against an Indian elite - unless it's really really razor-thin.

Furthermore, two other data points which I came across and which I've posted before corroborates this: one being the International Math Olympiad where similar sized China consistently assembles a competent 6-member team at the top while India either did not or could not, year after year. In fact, way smaller countries like Korea and Japan managed to outscore India consistently. The other one is the TIMSS where in one substudy sampled Indian populations from two other different areas, and where India did poorly but still better than their PISA debut results. Here:

Notes:
1. Table is ranked by the least competent, i.e. the low international benchmark of < 400, attenuating differentiation at the top end. Hence Chinese Taipei is ranked lower than Estonia and Netherlands.

2. TIMSS vs PISA; the commonwealth seems to do better with PISA, others better with TIMSS. Average reading passages tend to be twice as long for PISA and more context (can one even say cultural??) dependent. Their precise differences are a matter of discussion for academics, but suffice to say both correlate with human capital and if you think of it on a matter of cultural bias it actually accentuates the gap between China and India when their environmental or cultural background are accounted for....

Seems like there's a place for everyone.

But yes, in the end, I'm left with wondering if I've erred by underestimating China's - or North East Asia's - human potential in my more salad days, vis-a-vis the rest.

[NiceLemon]

Thanks, this is what another poster emailed to me in the past (not from this forum, not on same topic) as well. And as a chess player everyone calls him Vishy....

I am - perhaps I should say I was - also inclined towards this view. The distribution of the data above of this latest PISA release would argue against an Indian elite - unless it's really really razor-thin.

Furthermore, two other data points which I came across and which I've posted before corroborates this: one being the International Math Olympiad where similar sized China consistently assembles a competent 6-member team at the top while India either did not or could not, year after year. In fact, way smaller countries like Korea and Japan managed to outscore India consistently. The other one is the TIMSS where in one substudy sampled Indian populations from two other different areas, and where India did poorly but still better than their PISA debut results. Here:

Notes:
1. Table is ranked by the least competent, i.e. the low international benchmark of < 400, attenuating differentiation at the top end. Hence Chinese Taipei is ranked lower than Estonia and Netherlands.

2. TIMSS vs PISA; the commonwealth seems to do better with PISA, others better with TIMSS. Average reading passages tend to be twice as long for PISA and more context (can one even say cultural??) dependent. Their precise differences are a matter of discussion for academics, but suffice to say both correlate with human capital and if you think of it on a matter of cultural bias it actually accentuates the gap between China and India when their environmental or cultural background are accounted for....

Seems like there's a place for everyone.

But yes, in the end, I'm left with wondering if I've erred by underestimating China's - or North East Asia's - human potential in my more salad days, vis-a-vis the rest.

Interesting read. Which countries or regions are classified as North East Asia?

[AnybodyKiller]

How can you "accurately" account for culture and environment? Unless you raise hundreds of people in labs over multiple generations you can't.

When was the last time anyone under 35 has taken an IQ test? More accurate tests are being developed but until then the need to increase the difficulty of the test every generation to account for almost a full standard deviation of change (The Flynn Effect) alone is enough prove this a poor measurement of "general" intelligence.

On the subject just like athletics there are different types of intelligence. Just because someone will make an excellent pitcher in baseball, does not mean he will be an excellent NFL lineman. Same thing for intelligence. Most newer tests are starting to develop measurements for different types of intelligence.

India may be held back by multiculturalism (though they are the same race), but not because they are inferior.

This post has been edited by AnybodyKiller: Dec 25 2011, 08:41 PM

[DOUBLEMINT]

^Butthurt,Why cant you just for once be happy for others' achievements?

[AnybodyKiller]

^Butthurt,Why cant you just for once be happy for others' achievements?

I'm not "butthurt".

I don't mind saying Chinese are smart. I just don't like when people say it makes them superior just for being Chinese.

[gearofwar115]

I'm not "butthurt".

I don't mind saying Chinese are smart. I just don't like when people say it makes them superior just for being Chinese.

i went to the uni in US here, have to say chinese are not that smart, superior or something but they're quite hard workers (not all of them). And of course in the score board, every asian i saw seemed to be equal in academic achievements and higher than other races

[har]

It is an inferiority complex created by whites--Asians are told they are lacking physically in comparison to Europeans by popular global media and they work hard to compensate. If you observe closely most white people are simply trying to enjoy their lives--they don't really 'believe' they are threatened by Asians, they just think its a situation of white people who are wealthy taking advantage of them by initiating global trade practices/immigration etc.

Asians think they are in a competition with them--from outside the whites seemed more bemused at the whole affair.


The reason Indians don't work hard' and get organized copying the western way like many Asian countries have is very simple--their culture has not really been disproven--modern science is completely compatible with it--all 'new age philosophies' are just reworded Indian philosophies on various topics. The current age of the universe corresponds almost exactly to the date given by Indian sages. Even the language, mathematics, of modern science is written using Indian symbols. While the English tried very hard trying to convince Indians that they are inferior, everything in the modern world justifies their way of life not the reverse. After all, whites have had to become increasingly atheistic to incorporate science--the Chinese have given up on the Tao--what sacrifices have the Indians had to make?

Indians are culturally isolationists, they don't actually want to be part of a global culture--Indian economic organization and economic prosperity measured in the western way will improve only when their culture is either reinterpreted to explain why these things are important spiritually or if they are threatened militarily by an actual invasion.

I have never seen an Indian work very hard for material/competition principle like the Chinese/Koreans/Japanese--but they will set themselves on fire to prove ethics don't arise out of fear, bow and build grand palaces for rats while they live and sleep on dirt floors to crush their ego, cover themselves in the ashes of loved ones to show non attachment, kill their own children if they marry whites, etc etc etc

Indians work hard to live more relaxed lives, not because they wish to actually compete with whites or Asians or Blacks or etc. Do you see them really trying in sports or Olympics, they are just going through the motions of what they think is proper for the event, they don't 'feel' the competition as an expression of themselves. Have you come across an arrogant Indian and wondered wtf, what do you possibly have to be proud of, your country is in ruins, your people are hungry, your not 'white' -! The reason is that they genuinely believe they are spiritually superior, their culture tells them so, and up to date nothing has proven that it is wrong.


I think at the end of the day Asians are much more like Europeans--their civilizations are similar, their religions are similar, their world views are similar--if the economic situation reversed in the world I think Whites would work just as hard as Asians do. Indians have a different value system, Whites and Asians and blacks, they value other peoples material contributions--I don't think Indians see other people's contributions as valuable unless they are practicing some form of dharma.

[elleX0]

It is an inferiority complex created by whites--Asians are told they are lacking physically in comparison to Europeans by popular global media and they work hard to compensate. If you observe closely most white people are simply trying to enjoy their lives--they don't really 'believe' they are threatened by Asians, they just think its a situation of white people who are wealthy taking advantage of them by initiating global trade practices/immigration etc.

Asians think they are in a competition with them--from outside the whites seemed more bemused at the whole affair.


The reason Indians don't work hard' and get organized copying the western way like many Asian countries have is very simple--their culture has not really been disproven--modern science is completely compatible with it--all 'new age philosophies' are just reworded Indian philosophies on various topics. The current age of the universe corresponds almost exactly to the date given by Indian sages. Even the language, mathematics, of modern science is written using Indian symbols. While the English tried very hard trying to convince Indians that they are inferior, everything in the modern world justifies their way of life not the reverse. After all, whites have had to become increasingly atheistic to incorporate science--the Chinese have given up on the Tao--what sacrifices have the Indians had to make?

Indians are culturally isolationists, they don't actually want to be part of a global culture--Indian economic organization and economic prosperity measured in the western way will improve only when their culture is either reinterpreted to explain why these things are important spiritually or if they are threatened militarily by an actual invasion.

I have never seen an Indian work very hard for material/competition principle like the Chinese/Koreans/Japanese--but they will set themselves on fire to prove ethics don't arise out of fear, bow and build grand palaces for rats while they live and sleep on dirt floors to crush their ego, cover themselves in the ashes of loved ones to show non attachment, kill their own children if they marry whites, etc etc etc

Indians work hard to live more relaxed lives, not because they wish to actually compete with whites or Asians or Blacks or etc. Do you see them really trying in sports or Olympics, they are just going through the motions of what they think is proper for the event, they don't 'feel' the competition as an expression of themselves. Have you come across an arrogant Indian and wondered wtf, what do you possibly have to be proud of, your country is in ruins, your people are hungry, your not 'white' -! The reason is that they genuinely believe they are spiritually superior, their culture tells them so, and up to date nothing has proven that it is wrong.


I think at the end of the day Asians are much more like Europeans--their civilizations are similar, their religions are similar, their world views are similar--if the economic situation reversed in the world I think Whites would work just as hard as Asians do. Indians have a different value system, Whites and Asians and blacks, they value other peoples material contributions--I don't think Indians see other people's contributions as valuable unless they are practicing some form of dharma.

Har, sorry to disagree with all your unsophisticated and ill-concieved views about Indian, Asian, and European cultures. I fear your views are very prejudiced and lop-sided and totally wrong and with no scientific or anthropoligical evidence to support your absurd claims. The Hindus are a very old and sophisticated peoples with a culture equal to and as great as the Taoist culture or the ancient Greek culture.

Please stop writing nonsense and prejudice until you have done more independent research to support your views, with appropriate references to research papers.

This post has been edited by elleX0: Dec 26 2011, 04:39 AM

[newties21]

Source for that info? I hear differently according to my readings regarding Indian genetics.
...
Pay attention to the "Upper, Middle and Lower Caste" readings.
Why then in this country with low genetic divergence is there such high disparity?
Could it be something else? I'll leave you all to fill in the blanks.

I dont know, I dont remember, I think I might have read something at a glance, but I have an observation just from my own impressions, because I think that Indians are even more racially diverse than Brazillians. The top upperclass ones are light skinned and smart, the middle ones are so-so, and the bottom ones look totally different and they dont possess the same intellect at all. Coupled with this racial diversity is cultural diversity and deep religiosity, which in my opinion is not conducive for modernization and progress.