China's Attitudes concerning Russia, (your thoughts?) update* Options

[ReindeerGirl]

Despite improved relations, some scholars forsee an alliance between U.S. and Russia to overshadow Russia and China's relation and most defintely not for Chinas benefit or east asia.
I'd like to hear some chinese peoples perspective on Russia. Thanks for any insight!~

I thought this might spur some more discussion:
================================================================================


Russia, for its part, has been seeking to maintain its access to Central Asian gas and contain Chinese economic ambitions in the region by involving regional producers in a gas cartel dependent on Gazprom’s pipeline network. The rise in oil prices has, on the one hand, given Russia more global clout, but also has empowered Central Asian producers to look beyond Russia for better deals, especially on pricing. A variety of other countries, including Japan, the EU, and India, have indicated an interest. Thus, although Central Asian states have achieved a higher profile as economic players, through their individual connections to various states inside and outside the region, such efforts have not produced true regional integration.

While agreeing that any U.S. basing should be short-term and directly linked to the security situation in Afghanistan, both Russia and China have been reluctant to grant Iran full membership in the SCO for fear that this would turn the organization in an explicitly anti-American direction and encourage Western states to increase their pressure on China and Russia to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.86 No new members have been admitted since Uzbekistan joined in 2001, but Iran has been seeking full membership as its conflict with the United States and the EU has intensified.

Despite the apparent identity of interests between China and Russia in SCO, the reality is more complex.

Russia and China are competitors for economic influence in Central Asia and have different priorities on many key issues. In particular, Russia remains suspicious of China’s interest in developing multilateral economic cooperation in Central Asia and, as a result, prefers to focus on security cooperation within the SCO, while pursuing economic cooperation either bilaterrally or through other organizations, such as the EurAsEc, a vehicle for restoring Russian economic influence in the post-Soviet space. China is not a member of EurAsEc.
While generally supportive of the SCO, the Russian Foreign Policy concept, published in July 2008, clearly places a priority on developing CIS institutions such as the CSTO, identified as “a key instrument to maintain stability and ensure security in the CIS . . .,”
and EurAsEc, termed “a core element of economic integration.”91 By contrast, the SCO’s main purpose appears to be to coordinate multilateral initiatives with CIS and Asian organizations.
Meanwhile, China has been pushing for greater economic cooperation within the SCO, while Russia has been demurring. According to Alexander Lukin, Director of East Asian and SCO Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russia has been unwilling to contribute to a planned SCO Development Fund for fear that China would dominate the institution, once it began to function.93 The Russian government also has been reluctant to move forward with a plan to create a free trade zone in Central Asia scheduled to go into force in 2023, due to concerns over China’s aggressive exports policy in the region. Lukin notes that the $920 million China offered to the SCO is to be used to support purchases of Chinese goods.94
Unlike Russia, China sees the goals of economic and security cooperation in the SCO as interconnected and places a priority on the economic dimension. Some Chinese analysts perceive a Russian effort to regain its influence in Central Asia,95 which they view as an obstacle to deepening economic cooperation. Chinese critics have likened Russian views to a “siege mentality” and “old thinking,”96 though others note though others note
that Central Asian leaders are equally suspicious of Chinese intentions.

Pan Guang, Director of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies Center at the Shanghai Center for International Studies, notes that economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, is accelerating and will continue to grow despite the lack of enthusiasm in Russia. He acknowledges, however, that Russian initiatives thus far have been reactive. For example, President Vladimir Putin proposed creating an energy club within the auspices of the SCO just weeks after China began receiving its first pipeline oil from Kazakhstan in May 2006.99
The intensifying Sino-Russian competition over energy in Central Asia is likely to overshadow plans for an SCO energy club. China and Russia are competitors in determining supply routes, creating transnational energy complexes, and investing in exploration and pipeline projects. How these three issues are resolved will not only have a significant impact on economic integration within the SCO, but also will affect economic development within Russia and China and shape flows of energy outside the region, including to the United States.
In Alexei Malashenko’s view, alternative energy pipeline routes are “the Kremlin’s worst night-
mare. . . .” because they will reduce Russian leverage over Central Asia as well as making it less likely for Russia to become an energy superpower.100 Indeed, Russia is facing rebellion in two directions and is seeing its monopoly over Central Asian gas exports increasingly challenged. The most heated competition is centered on
33
control over gas exports from Turkmenistan to Europe, which now flows through Russian pipelines. The EU and the United States have been trying to convince Turkmenistan to participate in the trans-Caspian and Nabucco gas pipeline projects which would connect Europe to Caspian resources, bypassing Russia. In response, Gazprom announced in September 2008 that it was prepared to offer Turkmenistan (as well as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) “European” prices for contracts beginning in 2009, possibly as much as $400/thousand cubic meters (tcm), and more than double the current rate of $150/tcm.101
Frustration with negotiations with Russia on an oil pipeline spanning from Eastern Siberia to Northeastern China, coupled with mounting concerns over the stability of oil supplies and shipments from the Middle East, and an interest in transforming Xinjiang into a new major oil and gas production and refining center, have led China to seek out a number of cooperative projects with Central Asian states.102
===========================================================================

This post has been edited by ReindeerGirl: May 13 2011, 01:55 PM

[SkyBurial]

China and Russia are both in the SCO. Other than that, I don't see Russia as being a reliable ally to China.

This post has been edited by SkyBurial: May 11 2011, 03:03 PM

[crabdonut]

Personally I think Russia is China's biggest potential threat and the relationship is just wonky at best. Its never a good idea to have such a power next door and they're a far bigger threat than India.

Thats why I think its idiotic for some Chinese on this forum to praise Russia as an ally. They never were and never will be unless their influence and power is vastly compromised. And quite frankly they have never considered oriental people as their equal including today (though it is a lot better today). Thats why they think they can push around Asia however they want.

This post has been edited by crabdonut: May 11 2011, 10:21 PM

[bear11]

Personally I think Russia is China's biggest potential threat and the relationship is just wonky at best. Its never a good idea to have such a power next door and they're a far bigger threat than India.

Thats why I think its idiotic for some Chinese on this forum to praise Russia as an ally. They never were and never will be unless their influence and power is vastly compromised. And quite frankly they have never considered oriental people as their equal including today (though it is a lot better today). Thats why they think they can push around Asia however they want.

They are too weak today, I think China probably now has more economic influence in former Soviet countries of central Asia.

And quite frankly they have never considered oriental people as their equal including today (though it is a lot better today). Thats why they think they can push around Asia however they want.

They were defeated by Japan in 1905 war and they could only take territory from China and Japan when the countries were defeated by other western nations.

Today Russia has absolutely no influence in East Asia and in Central Asia China's influence will only grow.

[windsurfer]

There is no sweeping determination on the situation of Russia today.
Everthing has to be judged case by case.

Politically, Russia is more in line with China's foreign policy on a vast no. of issues:
USA
Iran
DPRK
Libya and middle east
Georgia (though China does not recognise the Russian takeover, but it did not enter the fray of reprimanding Russia's military action)
Ukraine
Japan
Taiwan
Tibet
Sale of weaponry and transfer of technology (space program) to China
Energy supply

Russia openly critised the US of invading into China's waters when the US recognisance plane and sub conducted espionage and collection of intelligence in Hainan many years ago.

When it comes to UN security council's voting, you can see the level of alliance between the two countries.

Russia's policy is opposite to China's in respect of:
India
Vietnam

US military threats are imminent to both China and Russia.

Russia is not an all weathered ally but it is definitely a lot closer in political stance to China than USA! A strong China-Russia relationship is good for the world's balance of power against the absolute dictatorship of the US + all its 51st states!

Over the years US's still employing a "stick and carrot " strategy towards China. I don't see much difference between the discrimination on China from US + allies to that from Russia! The discrimination from the US + West is even more severe! If the west wants to demonise / incriminate China on some political issues, their actions can be torrential, violent and relentless. Remember the fiasco that broke out in the west during the Beijing Olympic Torch Relay and the poor little girl's lip-synching? ( many of the west are doing the same in many of their important ceremonies!), and regarding Dalai Larma, Taiwan, HK, the Pacific military drills, the containment, the "neo-colonialism" absurdities on China's trade in Africa ... and many more! The western style hypocritsy (led by the US and UK) is crazy and suffocating.

This post has been edited by windsurfer: May 12 2011, 10:18 AM

[crabdonut]

They are too weak today, I think China probably now has more economic influence in former Soviet countries of central Asia.




They were defeated by Japan in 1905 war and they could only take territory from China and Japan when the countries were defeated by other western nations.

Today Russia has absolutely no influence in East Asia and in Central Asia China's influence will only grow.

Ha ha, underestimating Russia again. China do not have more economic influence in former Soviet countries. All the central Asian countries are trying to do is have a more balanced relationship with China, Russia and nowadays the US as well. But at the end of the day, Russia has far more influence in these countries than both China and US and will continue to stay that way in the near future. Basically they're trying to not rely on Russia too much but they won't let Chinese influence become too powerful as well. And Russia does have influence in East Asia especially with regards to the North/South Korea issue. Russia had a major setback during the fall of USSR but they're rebounding again and is only getting stronger. A country like Russia which has veto power in the UN means they have at least some influence all around the world.

WTF is up with people underestimating Russia? They are like the third most powerful country in the world and China is situated right next to it. China's rising power is all getting to their heads.

This post has been edited by crabdonut: May 12 2011, 09:56 PM

[qwerty2010]

How many times do we have to go through this?

"There are no permanent allies, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests"

[KochiGachi]

How many times do we have to go through this?

"There are no permanent allies, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests"

But you didn't comment that at other thread:

No, it isn't good enough for the Asia-Pacific NATO. If you want to encircle China and Russia, you need military bases in Mongolia, in the heart of the Eurasian Continent. SK & Japan are good for a Coastal Siege only - China and Russia could very well thrive with the SCO. This is why they are trying hard to convince the Mongolians, Koreans and Japanese Nationalists to use the mythical "Altaic Race" "genetic family" to seal this Alliance against the "Sino" people.

However, Japanese Nationalists will not accept anything less than dominance over the Koreans, so there are inherent conflicts in this "Alliance".

Like you've mentioned, there's no permanent ally & no permanent enemy but also no permanent interest.

[elleX0]

But you didn't comment that at other thread:


Like you've mentioned, there's no permanent ally & no permanent enemy but also no permanent interest.

Today's enemy could be tomorrow's ally. Look at history.

[qwerty2010]

But you didn't comment that at other thread:


Like you've mentioned, there's no permanent ally & no permanent enemy but also no permanent interest.

A sovereign nation always looks out for its own interests, i.e. ensuring its own survival and the thriving of its people, even though the interests can vary within a range, eg. an Empire's interests differ from a sovereign power's interests.

On every thread, I argue from the POV of interests from diverse nations, but I reckon it is most interesting from China's POV for me personally. If I give other perspectives, I would be accused of making presumptions.

WTF is up with people underestimating Russia? They are like the third most powerful country in the world and China is situated right next to it. China's rising power is all getting to their heads.

Agreed, NO ONE should ever mess with Russia, especially with their ultimate Doomsday Machine, "Dead Hand".

Don't worry, the ones talking about "taking on Russia" are most likely NOT Chinese.

This post has been edited by qwerty2010: May 14 2011, 04:25 AM

[KochiGachi]

A sovereign nation always looks out for its own interests, i.e. ensuring its own survival and the thriving of its people, even though the interests can vary within a range, eg. an Empire's interests differ from a sovereign power's interests.

On every thread, I argue from the POV of interests from diverse nations, but I reckon it is most interesting from China's POV for me personally. If I give other perspectives, I would be accused of making presumptions.



Agreed, NO ONE should ever mess with Russia, especially with their ultimate Doomsday Machine, "Dead Hand".

Don't worry, the ones talking about "taking on Russia" are most likely NOT Chinese.

That wasn't what you've wrote.
This isn't about "interest", you've clearly mentioned this

"There are no permanent allies, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests"

I've came up with there's no permanent interests.
I think you've missed my point.

You're jumping into assumption after assumption.

[elleX0]

That wasn't what you've wrote.
This isn't about "interest", you've clearly mentioned this


I've came up with there's no permanent interests.
I think you've missed my point.

You're jumping into assumption after assumption.

I doubt if America will ever overcome her phobia of Communism.

[richasiankid]

Despite improved relations, some scholars forsee an alliance between U.S. and Russia to overshadow Russia and China's relation and most defintely not for Chinas benefit or east asia.
I'd like to hear some chinese peoples perspective on Russia. Thanks for any insight!~

I thought this might spur some more discussion:
================================================================================


Russia, for its part, has been seeking to maintain its access to Central Asian gas and contain Chinese economic ambitions in the region by involving regional producers in a gas cartel dependent on Gazprom’s pipeline network. The rise in oil prices has, on the one hand, given Russia more global clout, but also has empowered Central Asian producers to look beyond Russia for better deals, especially on pricing. A variety of other countries, including Japan, the EU, and India, have indicated an interest. Thus, although Central Asian states have achieved a higher profile as economic players, through their individual connections to various states inside and outside the region, such efforts have not produced true regional integration.

While agreeing that any U.S. basing should be short-term and directly linked to the security situation in Afghanistan, both Russia and China have been reluctant to grant Iran full membership in the SCO for fear that this would turn the organization in an explicitly anti-American direction and encourage Western states to increase their pressure on China and Russia to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.86 No new members have been admitted since Uzbekistan joined in 2001, but Iran has been seeking full membership as its conflict with the United States and the EU has intensified.

Despite the apparent identity of interests between China and Russia in SCO, the reality is more complex.

Russia and China are competitors for economic influence in Central Asia and have different priorities on many key issues. In particular, Russia remains suspicious of China’s interest in developing multilateral economic cooperation in Central Asia and, as a result, prefers to focus on security cooperation within the SCO, while pursuing economic cooperation either bilaterrally or through other organizations, such as the EurAsEc, a vehicle for restoring Russian economic influence in the post-Soviet space. China is not a member of EurAsEc.
While generally supportive of the SCO, the Russian Foreign Policy concept, published in July 2008, clearly places a priority on developing CIS institutions such as the CSTO, identified as “a key instrument to maintain stability and ensure security in the CIS . . .,”
and EurAsEc, termed “a core element of economic integration.”91 By contrast, the SCO’s main purpose appears to be to coordinate multilateral initiatives with CIS and Asian organizations.
Meanwhile, China has been pushing for greater economic cooperation within the SCO, while Russia has been demurring. According to Alexander Lukin, Director of East Asian and SCO Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russia has been unwilling to contribute to a planned SCO Development Fund for fear that China would dominate the institution, once it began to function.93 The Russian government also has been reluctant to move forward with a plan to create a free trade zone in Central Asia scheduled to go into force in 2023, due to concerns over China’s aggressive exports policy in the region. Lukin notes that the $920 million China offered to the SCO is to be used to support purchases of Chinese goods.94
Unlike Russia, China sees the goals of economic and security cooperation in the SCO as interconnected and places a priority on the economic dimension. Some Chinese analysts perceive a Russian effort to regain its influence in Central Asia,95 which they view as an obstacle to deepening economic cooperation. Chinese critics have likened Russian views to a “siege mentality” and “old thinking,”96 though others note though others note
that Central Asian leaders are equally suspicious of Chinese intentions.

Pan Guang, Director of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies Center at the Shanghai Center for International Studies, notes that economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, is accelerating and will continue to grow despite the lack of enthusiasm in Russia. He acknowledges, however, that Russian initiatives thus far have been reactive. For example, President Vladimir Putin proposed creating an energy club within the auspices of the SCO just weeks after China began receiving its first pipeline oil from Kazakhstan in May 2006.99
The intensifying Sino-Russian competition over energy in Central Asia is likely to overshadow plans for an SCO energy club. China and Russia are competitors in determining supply routes, creating transnational energy complexes, and investing in exploration and pipeline projects. How these three issues are resolved will not only have a significant impact on economic integration within the SCO, but also will affect economic development within Russia and China and shape flows of energy outside the region, including to the United States.
In Alexei Malashenko’s view, alternative energy pipeline routes are “the Kremlin’s worst night-
mare. . . .” because they will reduce Russian leverage over Central Asia as well as making it less likely for Russia to become an energy superpower.100 Indeed, Russia is facing rebellion in two directions and is seeing its monopoly over Central Asian gas exports increasingly challenged. The most heated competition is centered on
33
control over gas exports from Turkmenistan to Europe, which now flows through Russian pipelines. The EU and the United States have been trying to convince Turkmenistan to participate in the trans-Caspian and Nabucco gas pipeline projects which would connect Europe to Caspian resources, bypassing Russia. In response, Gazprom announced in September 2008 that it was prepared to offer Turkmenistan (as well as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) “European” prices for contracts beginning in 2009, possibly as much as $400/thousand cubic meters (tcm), and more than double the current rate of $150/tcm.101
Frustration with negotiations with Russia on an oil pipeline spanning from Eastern Siberia to Northeastern China, coupled with mounting concerns over the stability of oil supplies and shipments from the Middle East, and an interest in transforming Xinjiang into a new major oil and gas production and refining center, have led China to seek out a number of cooperative projects with Central Asian states.102
===========================================================================

"Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests."

And they should.

[fireplant]

Personally I think Russia is China's biggest potential threat and the relationship is just wonky at best. Its never a good idea to have such a power next door and they're a far bigger threat than India.

Thats why I think its idiotic for some Chinese on this forum to praise Russia as an ally. They never were and never will be unless their influence and power is vastly compromised. And quite frankly they have never considered oriental people as their equal including today (though it is a lot better today). Thats why they think they can push around Asia however they want.

If you don't treat someone as an ally, then you won't have any allies.

Russia is not an all weathered ally but it is definitely a lot closer in political stance to China than USA! A strong China-Russia relationship is good for the world's balance of power against the absolute dictatorship of the US + all its 51st states!

That is the key. Russia is a sympathetic partner on a vast range of issues as you described. That makes them China's ally.

How many times do we have to go through this?

"There are no permanent allies, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests"

Russia has a big bullying side to it, but every relationship has its problems. Sino-Russian relationship is logical, carefully managed, and is becoming institutionalized. It's no longer dependent on individual personalities like it was in the past. Russian bullying is a fairly minor threat compared to western behavior, which tries to fu-k with the minds of your own people. Historically westerners' game have been subterfuge, undermining your society from within. To see this you only need to look at the vast results of their colonization tactics (which never required large scale wars). The west is the long term threat to China as far as I'm concerned.

[samil]

no need to worry. Any problem bumps up, then those Chechens are going to have themselves a suitcase nuke .

[kaizen]

The last country that underestimated Russian Federation/Soviet Union got raped. Literally. And I mean LITERALLY.

[orange peel]

That wasn't what you've wrote.
This isn't about "interest", you've clearly mentioned this


I've came up with there's no permanent interests.
I think you've missed my point.

You're jumping into assumption after assumption.

wtf are you high, there most certainly are permanent interests, survival for one.

[Megapower]

Absolutely agree with CrabDonut here...

Russia is the biggest land border threat to China, just like the Xiongnu, Mongols, Manchu, etc... were in history's past.

Our "alliance" with Russia is merely an Axis of Convenience - since China or Russia alone cannot prevent American influence from being too dominant in oil rich Central Asia. That's why Russia voluntarily gave up land to China on the contentious border, just to form the SCO, which is a joint sphere of influence treaty in Central Asia. As you can see, America invaded Afghanistan convenient just months after SCO was founded... Afghanistan gives America a permanent presence in Central Asia. It's the New Great Game again with oil pipelines, natural gas, and minerals playing a focal part of it.

This post has been edited by Megapower: Aug 18 2011, 12:27 AM

[Megapower]

Don't worry, the ones talking about "taking on Russia" are most likely NOT Chinese.

Ugh.... you realize that there is a lot of natural resources on this great Earth, and not a lot of it is located in China. In fact, for China's enormous and ever expanding demand, there is insufficient amount of raw materials to keep China's economy humming securely in the medium to long term...

Unfortunately, if the native lands of china is unable to give China, her people, and her raw demands for natural resources all the neccessary components she needs to live a better life and to improve the satisfaction and pride, and glory of the Chinese people...

then she must expand.

That's the nature of the beast. Our relationship with Russia is not permanent. Our strategic logic must be long term in nature, and we must be careful with Russia - but never think that the Chinese people are intimidated about the might of Russia....

Conclusion: Expansion into foreign territories for acquisition of commodity producing assets is an unfortunate reality of life - we must be subtle and invest in a modern military capable of handling any threat to our sovereign territorial interest within and abroad.

For make certain this - Chinese who even remotely suggest of war are not traitors of Western wannabes - A war in the Far Eastern Russia is at this moment, supremely impossible... for China's interest is growing her economy and securing the resources the real way - extracting from native lands, and importing where native lands cannot satisfy monstrous demands.

When the disorder time is right, I hope my analysis is wrong, because it will most surely get REALLY ugly in the future over natural resources.

This post has been edited by Megapower: Aug 18 2011, 12:18 AM

[Liang1a]

There is no sweeping determination on the situation of Russia today.
Everthing has to be judged case by case.

Politically, Russia is more in line with China's foreign policy on a vast no. of issues:
USA
Iran
DPRK
Libya and middle east
Georgia (though China does not recognise the Russian takeover, but it did not enter the fray of reprimanding Russia's military action)
Ukraine
Japan
Taiwan
Tibet
Sale of weaponry and transfer of technology (space program) to China
Energy supply

Russia openly critised the US of invading into China's waters when the US recognisance plane and sub conducted espionage and collection of intelligence in Hainan many years ago.

When it comes to UN security council's voting, you can see the level of alliance between the two countries.

Russia's policy is opposite to China's in respect of:
India
Vietnam

US military threats are imminent to both China and Russia.

Russia is not an all weathered ally but it is definitely a lot closer in political stance to China than USA! A strong China-Russia relationship is good for the world's balance of power against the absolute dictatorship of the US + all its 51st states!

Over the years US's still employing a "stick and carrot " strategy towards China. I don't see much difference between the discrimination on China from US + allies to that from Russia! The discrimination from the US + West is even more severe! If the west wants to demonise / incriminate China on some political issues, their actions can be torrential, violent and relentless. Remember the fiasco that broke out in the west during the Beijing Olympic Torch Relay and the poor little girl's lip-synching? ( many of the west are doing the same in many of their important ceremonies!), and regarding Dalai Larma, Taiwan, HK, the Pacific military drills, the containment, the "neo-colonialism" absurdities on China's trade in Africa ... and many more! The western style hypocritsy (led by the US and UK) is crazy and suffocating.

My perception of Russia is the same as windsurfer. Russia cannot be expected to be China's loyal ally in all things. Russia has its own agenda to pursue. As long as China's agenda fits Russia's agenda then the two can be allies for the duration. Russia needs China to protect its rear to the east. In the WW2 if China did not fight Japan, then the Japanese army could have easily cross Siberia and destroy the Russian rear areas. And with its rear areas destroyed the Russian army would have collapsed on their eastern front against the Germans. Also when USSR antagonized China in the 1970's it caused the Chinese to move to the US. As a direct consequence USSR collapsed within 10 years. The luckiest thing to happen to Russia is Bush Jr. alienating China and caused it to move closer to Russia. The relative stability and rise of Russia today owes much to the support of the Chinese. If China again move away from Russia then it will experience another collapse. China on the other hand is shifting its economic mode from exports dependent to domestic development dependent. This means China can grow independently rapidly. Within 10 years China's economy can double to some $25 trillion equivalent and 10 times bigger than Russian economy. China's technologies will also overtake Russia. This means Chinese military will be overwhelmingly bigger than Russian military. And China's influence will grow proportionately around the region from East Asia to Central Asia and S. E. Asia. However, China can maintain good relationship with Russia for mutual benefits. Economy is not a zero sum equation. It can only grow bigger for all through peace and cooperation. And common prosperity will further enhance peace and cooperation. Then there will be peace and prosperity from the Yellow Sea to the Caspian Sea and beyond. And with China on its side, Russia will not need to fear any attack from Germany or France or any other EU countries either single or collectively.