North Korea shuns Chinese diplomacy Options

[Adee]

I wonder what happens next.

[kimmyjung]

I have nothing against a united Korea but what is the guarantee that a united Korea will be able to get rid of US presence? They could easily reunite and then ask the US for military support again. Or the US can be a bully and refuse to leave.

The only way China is going to let NK go is if there is an exchange somehow for Taiwan.

NK truly is useless to China. It would rather have Taiwan. But until Taiwan comes back to China, I hope China continues its hold on NK.

[tinman01]

I have nothing against a united Korea but what is the guarantee that a united Korea will be able to get rid of US presence? They could easily reunite and then ask the US for military support again. Or the US can be a bully and refuse to leave.

The only way China is going to let NK go is if there is an exchange somehow for Taiwan.

NK truly is useless to China. It would rather have Taiwan. But until Taiwan comes back to China, I hope China continues its hold on NK.

The USA left the philipines when asked. Left Newfoundland when asked... Thats all it takes is the goverment of said country to request our closing of the base and it will be done. Japan I am not sure about given the treaty signed after WWII.

[BigBenChow]

I have nothing against a united Korea but what is the guarantee that a united Korea will be able to get rid of US presence? They could easily reunite and then ask the US for military support again. Or the US can be a bully and refuse to leave.

The only way China is going to let NK go is if there is an exchange somehow for Taiwan.

NK truly is useless to China. It would rather have Taiwan. But until Taiwan comes back to China, I hope China continues its hold on NK.

Do you think Taiwanese will ever want to reunify with the mainland if the mainland supports a guy like Kim Jong Il?

[Chinese DesertFo...]

Do you think Taiwanese will ever want to reunify with the mainland if the mainland supports a guy like Kim Jong Il?

Well the world doesn't run as simple as that. There are huge geopolitical implications behind every political action.

Taiwan is being used as a queen by the U.S. against China, and China is using North Korea as a pawn in this dangerous game of chess.

This post has been edited by Chinese DesertFox: Jul 14 2006, 12:01 PM

[BigBenChow]

Well the world doesn't run as simple as that. There are huge geopolitical implications behind every political action.

Taiwan is being used as a queen by the U.S. against China, and China is using North Korea as a pawn in this dangerous game of chess.

You're wrong. The NK situation is actually quite simple and obvious . Kim Jong Il is unstable,has nukes and is gaining the technology to deliver those nukes. The obvious and sane thing to do is, take him down.

What are the implications of taking down Kim Jong Il? and what are the implications of ALLYING ourselves with Kim Jong Il? Which of the two has greater negative implications for China?

Allying ourselves with a madman, or stop a madman.

It is not a chess game at all, it is very straight forward logical thinking.

This post has been edited by BigBenChow: Jul 14 2006, 02:05 PM

[Chinese DesertFo...]

Your wrong. The NK situation is actually quite simple and obvious . Kim Jong Il is unstable,has nukes and is gaining the technology to deliver those nukes. The obvious and sane thing to do is, take him down.

What are the implications of taking down Kim Jong Il? and what are the implications of ALLYING ourselves with Kim Jong Il? Which of the two has greater negative implications for China?

Allying ourselves with a madman, or stop a madman.

It is not a chess game at all, it is very straight forward logical thinking.

Again, it's not as simple as it sounds. I've had this discussion with many of my IS and PS professors, and they all agree that the situation in East Asia is very delicate and intricate.

You have a very amateurish and naive view of the situtation. The term "madman" for KJI is purely western media sensation, and China certainly isn't an "ally" of him.

Why worry about North Korea having nuclear weapons when Israel is known to have them and has been MUCH more aggresive than the former?

This post has been edited by Chinese DesertFox: Jul 14 2006, 02:16 PM

[mobi3232]

while I would like to see what is proposed here happen, I don't think it is possible given the situation.

China and NK are hardly allies. Even western media acknowledges the relationship is pure business and that China really doesn't have too much control on the way NK acts. When China announced to NK to not test missiles and NK did it anyway, it was a pragmatic move despite the loss of face because it showed the world media that China has no control over NK.

You don't just go and take out your neighboring business partner and destroy your own interests in the region just because it may seem like a popular point of view, which again means nothing in reality. International relationships have nothing to do with popular points of view, it is each nation out for its own interest.

If you have the military and economic power, you will command political respect in this world. All other things are purely for show. Just because you "rid the world of a madman" (which will make you popular for about 2 weeks), it does not mean you will win anything from any of the world's governments aside from how your future actions can benefit them. Now, what has the other nations offered China to make such a proposition even worth considering? Why risk danger to your own provinces and troops for something that is completely not worth it? U.S. is simply not going to just leave once madman KJI has been removed, they will be losing influence in the region. Which is why it will never agree to spending military power to remove KJI and then leave all the rebuilding of NK to SK or China.

China is just playing the middle card which is stay out of it as much as possible but prevent others from getting into it as well. I don't think the U.S. is itching to start a fight in the Korean peninsula either, it is not going to be as trivial as the Iraq war.

This post has been edited by mobi3232: Jul 14 2006, 03:49 PM

[BigBenChow]

Again, it's not as simple as it sounds. I've had this discussion with many of my IS and PS professors, and they all agree that the situation in East Asia is very delicate and intricate.

You have a very amateurish and naive view of the situtation. The term "madman" for KJI is purely western media sensation, and China certainly isn't an "ally" of him.

Why worry about North Korea having nuclear weapons when Israel is known to have them and has been MUCH more aggresive than the former?

You honestly don't see anything wrong with Kim Jong Il?? Someone who hires 12 year old girls for a joy brigade?

US has a leash on Israel. NK is controlled by Kim Jong Il. You can't tell the difference between the two? Who is the amateur here? Do you support Osama bin Laden as well? Why worry about Kim Jong Il having nuclear weapons? You are kidding right? Again? Who is the amateur here?

You have a very narrow minded view of things. You are like a frog inside of a well looking up at the sky. You only see the sky within the walls of the well not knowing the bigger world outside of the well. Please look at the big picture. What do you think will happen to Japan when NK fires a few more missiles? Will they sit back and TRUST that KIM won't do anything irrational or will they start arming her military to defend themselves? As a Chinese NATIONALIST, would you rather see Japan re-arm to the point of a military superpower like the US? or would you rather have Kim gone?

while I would like to see what is proposed here happen, I don't think it is possible given the situation.

China and NK are hardly allies. Even western media acknowledges the relationship is pure business and that China really doesn't have too much control on the way NK acts. When China announced to NK to not test missiles and NK did it anyway, it was a pragmatic move despite the loss of face because it showed the world media that China has no control over NK.

You don't just go and take out your neighboring business partner and destroy your own interests in the region just because it may seem like a popular point of view, which again means nothing in reality. International relationships have nothing to do with popular points of view, it is each nation out for its own interest.

If you have the military and economic power, you will command political respect in this world. All other things are purely for show. Just because you "rid the world of a madman" (which will make you popular for about 2 weeks), it does not mean you will win anything from any of the world's governments aside from how your future actions can benefit them. Now, what has the other nations offered China to make such a proposition even worth considering? Why risk danger to your own provinces and troops for something that is completely not worth it? U.S. is simply not going to just leave once madman KJI has been removed, they will be losing influence in the region. Which is why it will never agree to spending military power to remove KJI and then leave all the rebuilding of NK to SK or China.

China is just playing the middle card which is stay out of it as much as possible but prevent others from getting into it as well. I don't think the U.S. is itching to start a fight in the Korean peninsula either, it is not going to be as trivial as the Iraq war.

China only gives. It does not recieve anything from NK

US will not leave? Just like it didn't leave the Philippines when it was asked to?

Simple question.

Would you like to see Japan rearm to the point of which it will be another military superpower next to the US?

Because if Kim Jong Il is allowed to do whatever it pleases, Japan will do that. As a technological and economical power, it won't take long for Japan to gain offensive capability which would threaten China itself.

This post has been edited by BigBenChow: Jul 14 2006, 04:06 PM

[big_d!ck]

I wonder how many young girls Kim Jong Il fu-ks every night....

[chynagongju]

Okay. So let's say that China does agree to attack N. Korea along with Japan and the U.S. Say they take out KJI.

What now? What about the millions of refugees from N. Korea? Do you think they're going to want to stick around the desolate ex-communist nation? Or would they rather flee to the south to a S. Korea and China? Personally I think, as do the governments of both SK and China that the refugees will choose the 2nd option.

THIS is one of the main reasons that both S. Korea and China are refraining from supporting military action against KJI. Not simply because they want to "side with a mad man."

[chilli21]

military actions against NK can destablise the region and also japan can expand its military capability from that, china and SK certainly doesn't want this type of situation to happen. china and NK are not really allies but losing NK means losing another partner who opposes the US so in the long terms, it's not really a good thing. what china should do is to continue its tolerance on NK.

[BigBenChow]

Okay. So let's say that China does agree to attack N. Korea along with Japan and the U.S. Say they take out KJI.

What now? What about the millions of refugees from N. Korea? Do you think they're going to want to stick around the desolate ex-communist nation? Or would they rather flee to the south to a S. Korea and China? Personally I think, as do the governments of both SK and China that the refugees will choose the 2nd option.

THIS is one of the main reasons that both S. Korea and China are refraining from supporting military action against KJI. Not simply because they want to "side with a mad man."

In today's world, nothing is done without aggreements. With aggreements being formed with SK, US and Japan, China wouldn't even have to lift a finger with NK refugees. Nothing will be done to Kim untill there is a solid proper framework being in place before any missiles starts flying. This framework will definitely involve clauses which states that SK, Japan and US will have to handle the blunt of the carring for the refugees, Korea, US and Japan will have to spend the bulk of the hundreds of Billions for the reunification of Korea, Korea shall not have US forces near the Chinese border, etc etc... And if after all that, there are still NK refugees, let UN handle it. You might ask WHY would they agree to spend money? Simple, Money is what Asia has the most. Japan for example has alot of money, and if it takes a billion to rid the asian region of NK, I'm pretty sure Japan will spend. Just like US and SK will spend.

After helping Korea reunite under a more stable gov, Koreans will see no need for US forces to be on the peninsula. Korean youths especially would want to take control. US forces will eventually be kicked out like in the Philippines. US forces will most likely leave on its own due to the curent events in the middleeast. Korea will then be at friendly terms with China due to the help it got for reunification. Kim will be gone, Japanese - Chinese arms race averted, Korean money streaming into China for the rebuilding of Korea, US forces are off the peninsula and most importantly, China's international image will no longer be "an ally of Kim Jong Il"...

military actions against NK can destablise the region and also japan can expand its military capability from that, china and SK certainly doesn't want this type of situation to happen. china and NK are not really allies but losing NK means losing another partner who opposes the US so in the long terms, it's not really a good thing. what china should do is to continue its tolerance on NK.

You think Japan will re-arm if China kills Kim Jong Il? If that is the case, It will be worse for China if the current trends continue. What will make Japan re arm is when NK Starts shooting more missiles at Japan's direction. By looking at the current timeline of events, Japan will be re armed with a offensive capable force within 5 years.

Here are some sample headlines on the news after NK shot off the 7 missiles.

-US sending its latest missile destroyed to Japanese waters.
-Japanese debating on whether it should be allowed to have offensive capabilities for self defense.
-China is lacking control over Kim Jong Il
-US, Japan are showing impatience over Chinese negotiations with NK and the 6 party talks itself.

If we get rid of Kim Jong Il, Japan will NOT have the excuse to rearm itself with an offensive capability.

Last point...

I'm not saying China should have a pre-emptive strike on NK tomorow. China should first allow NKoreans to know that Chinese patience is running thin and running out. After that, if NK still does not comply with international views, China should cut its oil supplies to the NKoreans due to "Technical" reasons. Only after ALL pressure has been used, China should only begin NK regime change negotiations with SK, Japan and US as a last resort.

This post has been edited by BigBenChow: Jul 14 2006, 09:45 PM

[chilli21]

You think Japan will re-arm if China kills Kim Jong Il? If that is the case, It will be worse for China if the current trends continue. What will make Japan re arm is when NK Starts shooting more missiles at Japan's direction. By looking at the current timeline of events, Japan will be re armed with a offensive capable force within 5 years.

Here are some sample headlines on the news after NK shot off the 7 missiles.

-US sending its latest missile destroyed to Japanese waters.
-Japanese debating on whether it should be allowed to have offensive capabilities for self defense.
-China is lacking control over Kim Jong Il
-US, Japan are showing impatience over Chinese negotiations with NK and the 6 party talks itself.

If we get rid of Kim Jong Il, Japan will NOT have the excuse to rearm itself with an offensive capability.

Last point...

I'm not saying China should have a pre-emptive strike on NK tomorow. China should first allow NKoreans to know that Chinese patience is running thin and running out. After that, if NK still does not comply with international views, China should cut its oil supplies to the NKoreans due to "Technical" reasons. Only after ALL pressure has been used, China should only begin NK regime change negotiations with SK, Japan and US as a last resort.

first i like to say is japan is already re-arming itself with US support and their main excuse is: the china threat. now if military actions are used on NK, the attackers will definitely be japan and the US. japan's relationship with SK will be at risk but during the action, in the name of good cop, japan can expand its military might even more. right now in japan, people actaully want the country to be more involved in foreign affairs and more military cooperations with the US.

if china get rid of kim jong il, japan can still rearm itself, their excuse will be china......again. like the US, japan is searching for an imaginary enemy so that they can re-arm themselves.

china should allow limited sanctions on NK (to put pressure on them) but should not be as hard as japan and the US.

This post has been edited by chilli21: Jul 15 2006, 07:40 PM

[ktchong]

^ yeah, you have a point there. Japan seems to be looking for a fight. Nationalism is on the rise in Japan again, and nationalists are looking for an excuse to militarize. Nationalism, militarism PLUS democracy make a very dangerous combination -- that's how Hitler came into power. Yup. It's was the nationalist zeal that handed power to Hilter under a democracy.

This post has been edited by ktchong: Jul 15 2006, 07:37 PM