When you expect China reach superpower status? Options

[EazyMoney]

in my pov, by 2020, China should attain that type of status. It's economy should surpass the $10 trillion mark, bigger than all the rest of asian economies combined. Its dometic market will be big enough to be immune to any type of trade wars, boycotts with the west. on the flipside, it can use its economic muscle to punish individual nation that goes against it, like what its doing now to france. France had to "beg" for forgiveness relate to the dalai issue.

militarily, it will feature 3 or 4 long projection carrier strike force groups. It will be ocean going force just like the USN.

[zhengchenggong]

Agreed. 2020 should be the year that China can assume superpower status. Its national power will be close to the US, a peer rival.

I think by 2030, China would clearly surpass the US and be the world's major superpower.

By 2050, China will be the world's only superpower, its economy will be larger than all of the West combined. I hope I see that day.

[mkfk1]

Economically, when the average annual income reach the modern equivalent of 10k USD per year.

Militarily, when PLA have 3-5 carriers battle groups, with up to date missiles, jets, subs, and other weapons.

Both should be achieve by 2025-2030. I like to have lower expectations to avoid disappointment.

Socially, and politically.... thats another story. But money and weapons are more important.

[MyNameIsVu]

What is "superpower" status? It is just a term coined by the West and theirs political elitive system. Good luck learning from them.

[EazyMoney]

It's debatable when & if China's economy can surpass US economy. But the for the next 10 yrs, if their economy can double up, that will be the key. After that it can be home free, decidedly pulling away by big margin from second rated powers such as Japan, Germany, France..and getting close enough to US's. Right now, China kind of bundled up among those second rated powers.


Militarily, during the cold war, Soviet's weapons are clearly weren't as good as the US but they are still serious threat to US therefore no much happened between the two. I think China can reach that kind of state weaponwise, mutlfaced..

As for Taiwan, I have absolutely nothing to worry about it. By that time, Taiwan's It will have little or no margin of tech advancement over China's. It will cling dearly to China like a piece of gum for its economic wellbeing. You can already see that type of trend happening now in this economic crisis.

[MyNameIsVu]

It's debatable when & if China's economy can surpass US economy. But the for the next 10 yrs, if their economy can double up, that will be the key. After that it can be home free, decidedly pulling away by big margin from second rated powers such as Japan, Germany, France..and getting close enough to US's. Right now, China kind of bundled up among those second rated powers.
Militarily, during the cold war, Soviet's weapons are clearly weren't as good as the US but they are still serious threat to US therefore no much happened between the two. I think China can reach that kind of state weaponwise, mutlfaced..

As for Taiwan, I have absolutely nothing to worry about it. By that time, Taiwan's It will have little or no margin of tech advancement over China's. It will cling dearly to China like a piece of gum for its economic wellbeing. You can already see that type of trend happening now in this economic crisis.

How is the economy beings measured. It is better to measure the recycling frequency, quality of life, custom made products,... I thinks you're confuse.

The only weapon of major thread that I saw here is Leatha"weapon" ,, but this fail to "kiill." Oh, the evilness of evilness.

[EazyMoney]

How is the economy beings measured. It is better to measure the recycling frequency, quality of life, custom made products,... I thinks you're confuse.

The only weapon of major thread that I saw here is Leatha"weapon" ,, but this fail to "kiill." Oh, the evilness of evilness.

How's measured? I measured relative to biggest economy of the world, US currently with total 14 trillion GDP. When you reach certain size, then it would be self suffcient and relatively independent.

would you call singapore as world power since it has pretty high quality of life? You probably would because it has pretty high per capita GPD.

but its overall economy is too small and overly depend on outside for its survival. so Not in my book.

[InitialDJay]

i oppose the idea of CHINA being a world police.

[kaixin]

Chinese people are lazy and peaceful people ,right?

[Suijen]

3-4 Carriers? Where'd you come up with that?

[newties21]

In 50 years time.

In 100 years time, almost close gap with USA. Already good enough.

2020 is too short, that is just 10years+ from now.

10 years + cannot do much.

A lot of things need to change first, educational level, technological level, economy climbing up the value chain (not just low level manufacturing), improvement in legal environment, etc, these are all deep social change which need time and need several generations.

The most important thing is to be patient and to remove obstacles until after 50 years+

[Mid-Night_Sun]

if US is any indication of what is expected, never i hope......

when its bad, US does w/e it wants and people get mad. when its good, people look to US to "lead" them. too much involvement with other countries imo.

[Suijen]

China will overtake the US by 2020 economically assuming current growth rates, which is quite unreasonable.

This post has been edited by Suijen: May 11 2009, 03:01 AM

[Hafiz]

i oppose the idea of CHINA being a world police.

Yup.

China should follow this slogan :

國家自掃門前門雪

[EazyMoney]

China will overtake the US by 2020 economically assuming current growth rates, which is quite unreasonable.

reaches over $10 trillion mark by current equivalent. nowhere I mention overtake US by 2020.

[Avitech]

In 50 years time.

In 100 years time, almost close gap with USA. Already good enough.

2020 is too short, that is just 10years+ from now.

10 years + cannot do much.

A lot of things need to change first, educational level, technological level, economy climbing up the value chain (not just low level manufacturing), improvement in legal environment, etc, these are all deep social change which need time and need several generations.

The most important thing is to be patient and to remove obstacles until after 50 years+

Germany has a big economy even though it relies on medium-end products as indicated by technological sophistication measures.

This post has been edited by Avitech: May 11 2009, 07:57 AM

[redcoin]

China will become the next great country and superpower of the 21st century, and we in the western world are already starting to acknowledge this. I don't think people should fear this because China seems to have more of a trading culture as opposed to an invading/colonist culture. I mean without the Chinese buying our minerals and resources, us Australians would probably be just another Africa

I see China economically overpowering the USA within the next 50 years, the USA is in too much trouble and debt to continue on policing the world. There is a very good chance that their currency will crash within the next 10 years due to hyperinflation.

[Manders]

Unless this recession lasts for another 20 years, China will not replace the U.S. as a superpower. And remember, the competition is fierce (India, EU, Brazil, Russia, etc)

[mndeg]

You said the competition is fierce and then you list THOSE countries/organizations?

[moo]

never if china keeps copying off other countries. at best they can only have be an imitation of a superpower.