China preparing for war aginst Vietnam?, S. China Sea Options

[Liang1a]

english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/7564716.html

PLA's operation in S. China routine drill: Defense Ministry
(Xinhua)
17:09, August 09, 2011

China's Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday said that a recent People's Liberation Army (PLA) operation in south China was a routine drill.

Media reports have speculated that a large buildup of PLA troops in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region along the Vietnam-China border could be related to the recent tensions over the South China Sea.

A statement published on the frontpage of the ministry's website, www.mod.gov.cn, said that the PLA's Guangzhou Military Area Command had conducted an annual routine drill in the region and the media should not leap to speculations.

======================================
China preparing for war aginst Vietnam?

Some people have speculated that the troop movements were preparations for an attack on Vietnam in the coming autumn. Maybe it is or maybe it is just a routine exercise as explained here. But if I were planning for an attack on Vietnam I would attack the Vietnamese air force and navy to destroy them totally. Destroying Vietnamese air force and navy isn’t such a difficult task because there are not that many fighters and frigates. Vietnamese air force has some 60 Su-30 and Su-27 fighters plus another 30 Mig-23 and 200 Mig-21 which are obsolete in Russia. This compares to China’s some 600 Su-30, Su-27, J-10, and J-11 plus hundreds of other fighters. There are evidence that China’s fighters are superior in equipment and pilots. So destroying the Vietnamese air force will not be a big problem. China also has many missiles which can be used to blow holes in the runways of air bases and so trap the fighters on the ground. Then cruise missiles can swoop in the blow up the fighters as they sit as well as the missile defenses. Then the Chinese fighter/bombes can come in and mop up the remaining fighters and whatever planes on the air bases. As to the navy, there really isn’t any navy to speak of. Vietnam will be getting a couple of frigates from Russia in 2011 and 2012. It will also get maybe 6 Kilo class submarines from Russia between 2012 to 2016. So it is advantageous for China to destroy the Vietnamese navy now with lower cost. Vietnamese navy now is just some patrol boats probably armed with machineguns. These will probably stay in port and can be hit with missiles fired from Chinese missile boats 100 km away.

Once the Vietnamese air force and navy have been destroyed, Chinese battleships can bombard the Vietnamese island garrisons until they surrender. And without any air force or navy, Vietnam cannot attack Chinese garrisons on these islands.

As China attack and destroy the Vietnamese air force and navy, the Vietnamese army might launch an attack into Guangxi, China. Therefore, it is a good and necessary precaution to deploy Chinese troops in the border area to trap and destroy any attacking Vietnamese invaders.

As Vietnam and the Philippines are stepping up and increasing the number of islands they occupy and the activities to explore for oil and other resources, China can use this as the reason to declare the peace agreement null and void and give them ultimatums to get out of Chinese sovereign islands. At the expiration of the ultimatums, China should just automatically go into war and destroy their air forces and navies and retake China’s sovereign islands.

Time is not on China’s side under the status quo. The longer Vietnam occupies the islands the more they can argue their sovereignty due to effective occupation and control. They can justifiably argue that since China took no forceful actions against their illegal occupation of Chinese sovereign territories, it must be due to the fact that China acquiesced to their occupation and give up on China‘s claim of sovereignty. And China’s argument that it did not attack due to considerations of peace and benevolence would not be accepted by the majority of the international community because that is a ridiculous argument. Also as Vietnam continues to get more fighters and frigates and submarines, it will cost more in equipments and lives for China to destroy their air force and navy. In the end, it is unrealistic to expect Vietnam to automatically leave the Chinese islands. The realistic choices are war or giving up. Since giving up on Chinese sovereign islands is no option the only remaining option is to go to war.

As China steps up preparation for war, Vietnam will surely show some signs of backing down. But this is surely just a ploy to play for time as it gets more fighters and naval vessels from Russia which will increase the cost for China to go to war against them. Therefore, China must make the decision to go to war now. There is simply no other choice.

[ComradeDeki]

I would think it's more of an aggressive gesture to encourage Vietnam to back down. Vietnam's military has been rusty since the last 20 years but they do have a strong air defense going for them. Though the VPA has been trying to go for a quality of quantity stance on its military, numbers is another advantage that Vietnam has. Before people say that China's population makes up 1/5th of the world, Vietnam has more troops including reserve and paramilitary for the sole purpose of self-defense. As for the territorial assets, Vietnam occupies 31 of the Spratley Islands and his been keeping a tight grip to my knowledge. Just to be optimistic, I don't think China is willing to invade at such a time like this. To be even more optimistic, I think the United States may play a role in this situation; the United States had a military exercise with Vietnam last year to deal with China specifically.

[fireplant]

China will always build up public opinion in the newspapers towards an ultimatum。 There are two phrases from classical texts which China has used in the past:

是可忍孰不可忍？If this is tolerable then nothing is intolerable.
勿谓言之不预也 Do not then say you had no warning of it.


Chinese just don't sneak attack people, so you can be sure these were in fact exercises. (routine or not I don't know)

This post has been edited by fireplant: Aug 9 2011, 07:03 PM

[Liang1a]

China will always build up public opinion in the newspapers towards an ultimatum。 There are two phrases from classical texts which China has used in the past:

是可忍孰不可忍？If this is tolerable then nothing is intolerable.
勿谓言之不预也 Do not then say you had no warning of it.


Chinese just don't sneak attack people, so you can be sure these were in fact exercises. (routine or not I don't know)

Here is a Confucian quote:

好仁不好学，其蔽也贼。 Loving benevolence without loving to learn (wisdom), the consequent befuddlement will lead one to become victims of thieves.

China cannot deal with Vietnam from the basis of benevolence without understanding the reality of having to protect its own sovereign territories with force. Otherwise, it will be robbed of its sovereign territories as a fool will be robbed of his personal properties.

Here is another Confucian quote:
君子可欺也，不可罔也. A gentleman can be harmed but cannot be fooled.

This means China should not be fooled into giving up its sovereign territories.

不但不能“博施于民，而能济众”，恐怕还会上当受骗，受小人所陷害，

[Liang1a]

I would think it's more of an aggressive gesture to encourage Vietnam to back down. Vietnam's military has been rusty since the last 20 years but they do have a strong air defense going for them. Though the VPA has been trying to go for a quality of quantity stance on its military, numbers is another advantage that Vietnam has. Before people say that China's population makes up 1/5th of the world, Vietnam has more troops including reserve and paramilitary for the sole purpose of self-defense. As for the territorial assets, Vietnam occupies 31 of the Spratley Islands and his been keeping a tight grip to my knowledge. Just to be optimistic, I don't think China is willing to invade at such a time like this. To be even more optimistic, I think the United States may play a role in this situation; the United States had a military exercise with Vietnam last year to deal with China specifically.

Just because Vietnam occupies some Chinese islands doesn't mean they belong to it. They still belong to China. Sovereignty is established by first discovery and legal establishment of sovereignty by incorporating it into a nation's administration. China is the first to discover and the first to incorporate these archipelagos into its administrative maps since the time of Han Dynasty and Tang Dynasty respectively. Thereafter China has maintained its sovereignty down to the present day. Therefore, there is no question that China is the sovereign owners of these archipelagos.

Vietnam has a big army in terms of more soldiers but it has a puny air force and navy. It is not necessary to invade Vietnam itself. It is only necessary to destroy Vietnam's air force and navy to make it unable to protect its garrisons on the Chinese islands. Then China can easily bomb the Vietnamese garrisons till they all die or surrender.

The US is having too much trouble with its economy. It must reduce its overbloated military. Many highest ranking American politicians are now insisting that American stop all its wars and stop being world policemen. Given this trend, there is no chance at all that it will fight and die and squander hundreds of billions of dollars to help Vietnam, its former enemy.

[fireplant]

Here is another Confucian quote:
君子可欺也，不可罔也. A gentleman can be harmed but cannot be fooled.

This is a good quote and I like your translation too.

[papen]

[color="#006400"][/color]

Just because Vietnam occupies some Chinese islands doesn't mean they belong to it. They still belong to China. Sovereignty is established by first discovery and legal establishment of sovereignty by incorporating it into a nation's administration. China is the first to discover and the first to incorporate these archipelagos into its administrative maps since the time of Han Dynasty and Tang Dynasty respectively. Thereafter China has maintained its sovereignty down to the present day. Therefore, there is no question that China is the sovereign owners of these archipelagos.

Vietnam has a big army in terms of more soldiers but it has a puny air force and navy. It is not necessary to invade Vietnam itself. It is only necessary to destroy Vietnam's air force and navy to make it unable to protect its garrisons on the Chinese islands. Then China can easily bomb the Vietnamese garrisons till they all die or surrender.

The US is having too much trouble with its economy. It must reduce its overbloated military. Many highest ranking American politicians are now insisting that American stop all its wars and stop being world policemen. Given this trend, there is no chance at all that it will fight and die and squander hundreds of billions of dollars to help Vietnam, its former enemy.

Nobody knew if it's Han or Yue people


There's no Hai Nan, only Jiao Zhi (northern Vietnam) was the only place close to the islands

More about Hai Nan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan

Because it's too far away from the capital, Han abandoned it. Li people (Yue tribe) were the native people there and they occupied middle and Southern part of the island

During the Three Kingdoms Period, Hainan was the Zhuya Commandery (珠崖郡) under the control of Eastern Wu.

Do you think that during that period, the ruler cared much about a tiny island in the furthest South while there many kingdomds in China fighting each others?
Until Song dynasty then Hai Nan officially is a part of Guang Xi

This post has been edited by papen: Aug 11 2011, 06:49 PM

[Liang1a]

Nobody knew if it's Han or Yue people


There's no Hai Nan, only Jiao Zhi (northern Vietnam) was the only place close to the islands

More about Hai Nan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan

Because it's too far away from the capital, Han abandoned it. Li people (Yue tribe) were the native people there and they occupied middle and Southern part of the island

Do you think that during that period, the ruler cared much about a tiny island in the furthest South while there many kingdomds in China fighting each others?
Until Song dynasty then Hai Nan officially is a part of Guang Xi

The map is pointless. It is a map made by some foreign countries in the 20th Century. Of course it does not show the S. China Sea islands. For one thing the islands are out of the map. So it proves nothing. Furthermore, China claims the S. China Sea archipelagos during the Tang Dynasty around 790 AD. So of course even an authentic Chinese map of the Han Dynasty would not have shown the S. China Sea archipelagos as part of China's sovereign territories.

The significance of the Han Dynasty is that these S. China Sea archepelagos were first discovered by the Chinese during the Han Dynasty. It is some 1,000 years later in the Tang Dynasty that they were incorporated officially into the Chinese nation's sovereign territories. Don't confuse the two events.

[Liang1a]

Below are some quotes to show the timeline of China's discoverey and claim of sovereignty over the S. China Sea archipelagos:

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/3754/t19234.htm

As early as in the Han Dynasty that was more than two thousand years ago, the Chinese people discovered the Nansha Islands through their navigational experience and in the course of their productive activities over the years. All this was amply recorded in the books such as Records of Rarities by Yang Fu of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Records of Rarities in Southern Boundary by Wan Zhen of the Three Kingdoms Period and A History of Phnom by General Kang Tai of the East Wu State.

C. The exercise of jurisdiction by the Chinese Government over the Nansha Islands is also manifested in a series of continued effective government behavior. After Emperor Zhenyuan of the Tang Dynasty (785-805AD) came to the throne, China included the Nansha Islands into its administrative map. It did so more conscientiously in the Ming and Qing Dynasties. A wealth of official documents of the Chinese Government, its local history books and official maps have recorded the exercise of jurisdiction by the successive governments of China over the Nansha Islands and recognized these islands as Chinese territory.

[Liang1a]

http://www.spratlys.org/history/spratly-is...ry-timeline.htm

200BC around
China firstly discovered the Spratly Islands and other Southern Sea Islands

206BC-24AD
Most of the Paracel, the Spratlys and Pratas Island were known by Chinese geographers of the Han Dynasty

23-220AD
Yang Fu of the East Han Dynasty made the reference to Nansha Islands in his book entitled Yi Wuzi (Records of Rarities)

220AD
Nansha (Spratly) Island was settled by Chinese monks, building up a monastery on that island.

220-280AD
General Kang Tai one of the famous ancient Chinese navigator of East Wu State of the Three Kingdoms Period mentioned Nansha Islands in his book Funan Zhuan (or Journeys to and from Phnom) (the name of an ancient state in today's Cambodia).

265-420AD
Fei Yuan of the Jin Dynasty(265-420 A.D.) wrote about the fishing and collecting of coral samples by the fishermen of China on the South China Sea in his article Chronicles of Guangzhou.

789AD
The Tang Dynasty, China included the Nansha Islands into its administrative map

[PTDTCH]

Some people have speculated that the troop movements were preparations for an attack on Vietnam in the coming autumn. Maybe it is or maybe it is just a routine exercise as explained here. But if I were planning for an attack on Vietnam I would attack the Vietnamese air force and navy to destroy them totally. Destroying Vietnamese air force and navy isn’t such a difficult task because there are not that many fighters and frigates. Vietnamese air force has some 60 Su-30 and Su-27 fighters plus another 30 Mig-23 and 200 Mig-21 which are obsolete in Russia. This compares to China’s some 600 Su-30, Su-27, J-10, and J-11 plus hundreds of other fighters. There are evidence that China’s fighters are superior in equipment and pilots. So destroying the Vietnamese air force will not be a big problem. China also has many missiles which can be used to blow holes in the runways of air bases and so trap the fighters on the ground. Then cruise missiles can swoop in the blow up the fighters as they sit as well as the missile defenses. Then the Chinese fighter/bombes can come in and mop up the remaining fighters and whatever planes on the air bases. As to the navy, there really isn’t any navy to speak of. Vietnam will be getting a couple of frigates from Russia in 2011 and 2012. It will also get maybe 6 Kilo class submarines from Russia between 2012 to 2016. So it is advantageous for China to destroy the Vietnamese navy now with lower cost. Vietnamese navy now is just some patrol boats probably armed with machineguns. These will probably stay in port and can be hit with missiles fired from Chinese missile boats 100 km away.

Vietnamese armed forces could not be happier if Chinese military leaders also underestimated VPA and VPN like this.

As SunTzu said: you never win if you are ignorant of your opponents.

[Liang1a]

Vietnamese armed forces could not be happier if Chinese military leaders also underestimated VPA and VPN like this.

As SunTzu said: you never win if you are ignorant of your opponents.

It is also important that one does not overestimate one's enemy. I don't underestimate Vietnamese military but what is there in Vietnamese military to impress me? It is perfectly simple to count the number of fighters and see what kind of fighters they are. If there are 60 Vietnamese Su-30 and Su-27 then China can at the worst trade fighter for fighter and it would cost 60 Chinese fighters of equivalent type to destroy Vietnam's fighters. It has been posted to various forums that Chinese fighters whenever they had the chance to encounter Vietnamese fighters had been able to lock onto them with their fire control radar. Once locked on it is equivalent to a "kill." Therefore, the reality is that China probably can destroy all Vietnamese fighters while losing only a few of their own fighters.

The Vietnamese are still very arrogant from their defeat of the Americans. But the war over S. China Sea will be very different from the last war which had been fought in jungles. The objective of China will also be very different from the American objective. America tried to occupy and control Vietnam. China only wants to regain its sovereign territories. Therefore, China needs only to destroy Vietnam's air force and navy without setting foot on Vietnamese soil. That will limit China's needless losses of lives of Chinese soldiers while limiting the expenditure of materiels. And destroying Vietnamese air force and navy requires skills and tactics that the Vietnamese never had in the war against the Americans. The new war relies on superior technologies and superior intelligence of the military personnel. In the last war Vietnam relied on hiding in the jungle and used attrition as their main strategy of wearing down the Americans while paying millions of lives of Vietnamese fighters.

Vietnam also had the help of Russia and China in the last war. Vietnam had limitless supply of arms that were supplied to them for free. And China had guaranteed the safety of N. Vietnam because Americans were afraid that attacking N. Vietnam would bring in China like in Korea. Now China is Vietnam's enemy and Russia won't give anything to Vietnam for free. Therefore, it is Vietnam who is living in a day dream world expecting to re-fight the old war when conditions have changed totally.

It is the Vietnamese who are misunderstanding the nature of the coming war and overestimating their own power. And it is Vietnam who is underestimating the power of China.

This post has been edited by Liang1a: Aug 19 2011, 12:43 AM

[Liang1a]

As SunTzu said: you never win if you are ignorant of your opponents.

Here is what Si Ma Rang Ju, the putative teacher of Sun Zi, had said:

http://www.quanxue.cn/ct_bingfa/SiMa/SiMa01.html

司马法齐国司马穰苴著

01章 仁本

古者，以仁为本，以义治之之谓正，正不获意则权。权出于战，不出于中人。是故，
杀人安人，杀之可也；攻其国，爱其民，攻之可也；以战止战，虽战可也。故仁见
亲，义见说，智见恃，勇见方，信见信。内得爱焉，所以守也；外得威焉，所以战
也。

In the ancient time, benevolence is the foundation. To govern with justice
is righteous. If righteousness cannot be obtained then authority must be
imposed. Authority is derived from war and not by mediation. Therefore,
to bring security to the people by killing (the murderers), it is permissible
to kill; to attack a country but love its people, it is permissible to attack;
to stop a war by waging a war, it is permissible to wage war. Therefore,
when benevolence is applied, people are responsive and friendly. When righteousness
is applied, the people are happy. When wisdom is demonstrated the people
will rely on the ruler. When courage is displayed the people will be stable.
Trust will begat trust. The internal of the realm is secured by love
which allows the realm to be defensible. To deal effectively in external affairs, impressive power must be perceived by potential foes which is the reason for war.

Currently China is not being effective in its dealing with foreign countries. Many countries are actually occupying Chinese sovereign territories and mocking Chinese attempt at resolving the problem peacefully. As Si Ma had said thousands of years ago, to deal effectively in external affairs it is first necessary to impress aggressors with overwhelming power. Therefore, China cannot continue to rely on benevolence and mediation to resolve the territorial aggressions by foreigners. It is time to use power to settle this problem and with demonstrable power prevent them from committing further aggressions against China.

This post has been edited by Liang1a: Aug 22 2011, 04:50 PM

[asean.asia]

When? today, tomorrow, this week, this month, next quartar, next year? So when?

[Liang1a]

When? today, tomorrow, this week, this month, next quartar, next year? So when?

If it were up to me, last month.

But the Chinese government is still day dreaming about resolving the problem benevolently with forbearance. The only result is jeering and mockery. An example of that is this very last post from asean.asia. Maybe the Chinese government can see this and take it as a wakeup call for action. One consolation is that the Chinese government is no longer shy about posting military news in its official sites. The peoplesdaily.com has even inserted a new space for military news which has appeared as far as I've noticed only in the last few days. Is this a sign of Chinese government's preparation for war? Or is this just appeasing those Chinese who are advocating war? I don't know. I can only hope.

Especially significant is the many news about troop carriers and amphibious landing crafts and drills of naval vessels.

[langtang77]

If it were up to me, last month.

But the Chinese government is still day dreaming about resolving the problem benevolently with forbearance. The only result is jeering and mockery. An example of that is this very last post from asean.asia. Maybe the Chinese government can see this and take it as a wakeup call for action. One consolation is that the Chinese government is no longer shy about posting military news in its official sites. The peoplesdaily.com has even inserted a new space for military news which has appeared as far as I've noticed only in the last few days. Is this a sign of Chinese government's preparation for war? Or is this just appeasing those Chinese who are advocating war? I don't know. I can only hope.

Especially significant is the many news about troop carriers and amphibious landing crafts and drills of naval vessels.

Thanks God, it is not up to a dumb fu-k like you, and 1.3 billion chinese and their government do not look bad

[Liang1a]

Thanks God, it is not up to a dumb fu-k like you, and 1.3 billion chinese and their government do not look bad

Don't "approve" of the Chinese people so quickly. 80% of them are tired of China being pushed around and support the use of force to recover China's sovereign islands. The Chinese government may yet do the right thing.

[Mauser]

China may not have to use military force to retake what is rightfully theirs. They can send in Chinese oil companies to extract natural resources from there. These oil companies could be supplied with capital from the CCP. After all, there is a limited amount of oil in the Spratly and Paracel islands. The rest of the world can't complain because it is disputed and there are other nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, etc... occupying these islands. Once all the oil is gone, they can pack up and leave...or stay....

[jimmyle]

There are too many negative consequences for attacking Vietnam:
1. War is expensive, the US proved this with Iraq and Afghanistan
2. War will create extreme negative opinions of China as the aggressor, currently world's opinion of China is not great. Let's not make it worse. Chinese's economy is doing great, why jeopardize this?
3. US might gets involved (small probability but nevertheless real)

Chinese government is real patient. Eventually Vietnam's corrupt rulers will slowly give the islands to China. They just can't do this fast because the fear of angering the population and allowing the US to meddle with regime change. China also doesn't want their little brother commies government to collapse either. These newspaper articles are just there to allow Chinese to vent their anger.

This post has been edited by jimmyle: Nov 7 2011, 06:08 PM

[Boron]

^I agree with what you said. China doesn't want to push Vietnamese public opinion over the edge, but it expects cooperation from Vietnamese government in the long term.