China can beat Japan militarily with ease! Options

[Liang1a]

China can beat Japan militarily with ease!

http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99 ... lands.aspx

Japanese government studying Ishihara plan to buy Diaoyu Islands

Global Times-Agencies | June 08, 2012 01:15
By Hao Zhou

A senior Japanese cabinet official said Thursday that the Japanese government was studying the proposal by a right-wing politician to purchase the Diaoyu Islands and that objections to the plan by the Japanese envoy to China was "not in line with the government's stance," according to the Kyodo News.

The 80-year-old governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, raised the idea of buying three of five main islands in the Diaoyu Islands chain from their Japanese private owners during a trip to Washington in April.

Japan is continuously probing China on its resolve to defend Diaoyu Islands. The question arises if China fought Japan one on one can China win? I think the probability of China winning is overwhelming. Why? Consider the relative military hardware:

China:
Navy:
250,000 personnel
Aircraft Carriers 1
Destroyers 25
Frigates 47
Submarines 63 (6 nuclear attack submarines)
Missile boats 91

Air Force:
J-10 260
J-11 140
J-20 4
Su27 76
Su-30 99
J-7 350
J-8 360
Total: 1,289

Japan:
Navy:
45,800 personnel
Helicopter destroyers 4
Destroyers 8
Frigates 30
Frigates (light) 6
Submarines 21

Air force:
F-15 -- 213
F-2 (F-16) -- 94
F-4 -- 107
Total: 414

From the above it is obvious that China's military hardware is superior to Japan's. China also has DF-21D and DF-25 ASBM which can hit warships within 1,500 km to 3,000 km respectively. As far as I know Japan has nothing comparable. China has more ships of all types than Japan including nuclear attack subs that Japan does not have. After upgrading Chinese conventional subs are as quiet as Japanese subs, if not quieter, and Chinese nuclear attack subs are much quieter than conventional subs and can stay submerged for long periods of time. China's 91 missile boats can carry 8 anti-ship long range missiles each for a total of more than 720 anti-ship long range missiles. These missile boats can accompany destroyers and frigates or be guided by air force command centers to hit Japanese ships up to 500 km away. They are a formidable platform for launching deadly accurate missiles.

Chinese air force is much superior to the Japanese air force. I have listed 4 J-20 since it has been reported that 4 prototypes have been built. China also has been reported to have built many other prototypes such as J-18 which is comparable to F-35 but supposedly superior. There are others such as J-15 which are carrier based fighters and an unknown number of JF-17. The Chinese have at least 575 4th generation fighters to Japan's 307. In a fight, the Chinese fighters will no doubt wipe out the Japanese air force easily. The Chinese J-10 are rated superior to either F-15 and F-16 and can wipe them out without any problem.

Therefore, there is no problem for China to destroy Japan's navy and air force quickly and efficiently.

In the long term, Japan cannot expand its military significantly. Or at least Japan's military hardware cannot be better qualitatively or more quantitatively than China's. This is because Japan's economy is already much smaller than China's economy. China's PPP GDP is more than $15 trillion already (at 3 yuan per dollar for 47 trillion yuan). Japan's PPP GDP is only rated at some $4.4 trillion or only 75% of its nominal GDP. (Japan is just about the only country in the world whose currency is so over-valued that its real purchasing power is much less than its nominal value.) And China's economy has a lot of room to develop and expand by shifting quickly to domestic development while Japan's economy will grow slowly at best and must rely on exports to buy raw materials most of which it does not have. Therefore, over the next 10 years China can quadruple its military budget while its economy doubles. Japan's economy will be lucky if it didn't actually shrink.

Japan's military budget for 2012 in nominal dollars is some $60 billion. This is actually only some $45 billion in purchasing power. China's military budget for 2012 is more than $110 billion in nominal terms but more than $230 billion in real purchasing power terms. Therefore, China's military budget can comfortably increase to $1 trillion by 2020 for less than 3% of PPP GDP while Japan's PPP GDP will not exceed $6 trillion (by a very optimistic estimate) by 2020 - more than likely Japan's real GDP will contract due to shrinking population. And if Japan allocated more of its GDP to military then its economy will shrink even faster. And even if Japan spent 3% of that GDP for its military, its military budget in real PPP terms will be less than $180 billion or less than 1/5 of China's military spending for the same 3% of respective PPP GDP.

Already, China is building several air craft carriers as well as building more than 1,000 4th and 5th generation fighters. Many nuclear attack submarines are under construction to increase China's nuclear submarines to parity with American nuclear submarines by 2020. So Japan will only be even more outmatched by 2020 both in terms of numbers and in terms of quality. Frankly, any rational person can easily see that Japan is committing suicide in provoking China. Even though the CCP government is excessively timid for now and dare not fire even a single shot, yet it is nevertheless expanding the Chinese military. And the next generation of Chinese leaders will in most probability not be so timid as the Hu-Wen team. In the end, I think it will be beneficial for China to fight a good war in East China Sea to revive the confidence of the Chinese people.

This post has been edited by Liang1a: Aug 23 2012, 12:19 PM

[Liang1a]

I have heard often that Japanese navy is better than Chinese navy. I had given a comparison before and had pointed out that Chinese navy is definitely superior in numbers. Below I give another more detailed comparison between the weapons of both navy in terms of their best destroyers - the Type 052C for China and Kongo Class Aegis destroyers for Japan. As the comparison shows, Chinese destroyer is obviously superior to the Japanese destroyer. The Type 052C is listed as carrying C-805 anti-ship missiles. But unfortunately I cannot find any detailed information for this missile because it is so new and secret that no information is publicly available. However, it can be taken for granted that its capability is superior to C-803 in terms of range, speed and guidance system.

Comparing C-803 with the Japanese Harpoon SSM, the C-803 has greater range, faster speed and superior guidance system. Therefore, it can be taken for granted that with C-805 the Chinese anti-ship missiles are superior to the Japanese Harpoon to an even higher degree. This means that in a ship to ship duel, the Chinese ship can sink the Japanese ship from a greater distance (76 km) before the Japanese ship can come within range to fire its anti-ship missiles. This means the Chinese ship can sink the Japanese ship safely. It had been argued that the Kongo Class destroyers are superior to the Chinese Type 052C because they carry more missiles. But I had pointed out before that Chinese Type 052C can sink the Japanese Kongo and send them to Davy Jones's locker with all their missiles in tact.

Comparing the defense against attacks from fighters, the Chinese Type 052C has the HHQ-9 while the Japanese Kongo Class has the SM-2MR Standard SAM. The HHQ-9 has 30 km more range, 5 km higher ceiling, and Mach 0.7 or 1,236 km/h faster speed and more or less the same guidance system. Therefore, the Chinese missiles can hit Japanese fighter/bombers at a greater distance and at a higher ceiling with the same accuracy.

Also comparing the anti-ballistic missiles system, the Chinese ABM can travel at much faster speed (4,800 km/h faster) and hit targets at higher ceiling (25 km higher). This means the Chinese destroyer can have greater chances of surviving ballistic missile attacks.

The much ballyhooed Aegis system of the Japanese and American ships is more than equaled by China’s Type 052C destroyers which carry AESA radars (Type 346 radar) and fire control systems (Type 344 and Type 364 radars). The Kongo Class use the American AN/SPY-1 which is an inferior type of radar using PESA or passive electronic scanning array while China’s Type 052C uses the AESA or active electronically scanning array radar.

From the above comparison, it is obvious that the assumption of many people that the Japanese navy is superior to the Chinese navy is actually wrong. China is also increasing the number of destroyers and other naval ships much faster than Japan. China has at least 2 and maybe 4 aircraft carriers under construction as well as many more Type 052C and other more advanced types of destroyers such as Type 052D. Therefore, China is now more than a match for Japan in the Pacific Ocean and will only get stronger than Japan each year. And if you add in the Chinese advantages in terms of more and better fighters/bombers and ASBMs and satellite system, then it is obvious that Japanese navy will be destroyed easily by the Chinese military.

The moral is that if Japan wants to deploy military forces on Diaoyu Island then it is perfectly OK with China. I’d like to see a limited engagement to see the Japanese top of the line destroyers get sunk. Those who still think the Japanese navy is superior is stuck in a time warp of 20 years. China has developed tremendously in the last 20 years with a corresponding improvement in its overall military in general and navy in particular. So it will teach those who are stuck in a time warp a timely lesson and wake them up from their anachronistic stupor so that they can see how much the relative position between China and Japan has changed with China now above and rising and Japan now below and sinking.

=================================
Comparing Chinese destroyer and Japanese destroyer:

Chinese: Type 052C:

Japanese: Kongo Class:
----------------------------------

Anti-Ship Missile:
Chinese:
C-805: no information is available, using C-803 information; C-805 is expected to be superior to C-803.

C-803:
Range: 200 km
Speed: Mach 2 (2,450 km/h)
Guidance: infra red and MMW radar

Japanese:
RGM-84 Harpoon SSM:
Range: 124 km
Speed: 864 km/h
Guidance: active radar terminal homing
------------------------------------------------
SAM defense:
Chinese:
HHQ-9:
Range: 200 km
Ceiling: 30 km
Speed: Mach 4.2
Guidance: Inertial guidance system with mid course update and terminal active radar homing.

Japanese:
SM-2MR Standard SAM:
Range: 170 km
Ceiling: 25 km
Speed: Mach 3.5
Guidance: Command and mid course guidance with dual infra red/semi-active radar homing.

-------------------------------------------------

Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense:
Chinese:
S-400 (HQ-19):
Range: 400 km
Speed Mach 12 (14,400 km/h)
Ceiling: 185 km
Guidance: intertial guidance with radio command correction.

Japanese:
SM-3 Block IA ABM

Range: 500 km
Speed: 9,600 km/h
Ceiling: 160 km
Guidance: GPS/INS/semi-active radar/passive LWIR seeker (KW)
======================

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052C_destroyer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-803

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_(SAM)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_348_Radar
---------------------------------------

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kongo_class_destroyer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHTu9g54WMA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RGM-84_Harpoon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-66_Standard_Missile

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Stand...Missile_3#Japan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SPY-1

[baal]

Japan will develop nuclear weapons. That will deter China.

[Liang1a]

Japan will develop nuclear weapons. That will deter China.

Not if China develops efficient anti-missile shields.

[baal]

Not if China develops efficient anti-missile shields.

1. Then there will be an arms race that never ends.

2. Sail merchant ships into Shanghai and Hong Kong. Then detonate thermonuclear weapons. Fly a commercial aircraft into Beijing and detonate.

3. No one can protect themselves against all possibilities.

4. Here's one way it could be done:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6IROreCBTA

This post has been edited by baal: Sep 5 2012, 08:07 PM

[Liang1a]

1. Then there will be an arms race that never ends.

2. Sail merchant ships into Shanghai and Hong Kong. Then detonate thermonuclear weapons. Fly a commercial aircraft into Beijing and detonate.

3. No one can protect themselves against all possibilities.

4. Here's one way it could be done:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6IROreCBTA

There will be an end when China's enemies realized they have no chance of winning.

All ships can be monitored before they enter any Chinese ports. There are equipment that can detect radiation and neutron emissions. Also, ships that are suspect can be tracked even before they depart from their port of origin. Just put a cell phone or satellite phone on it and you can track its progress anywhere in the world.

Putting a nuclear bomb on a commercial jet is easier said than done. The same thing apply of monitoring nuclear materials at airports.

While it may not be possible to detect ALL attacks, it is certainly possible to deter 99.9% of all attempts. And not everybody in the world will want to nuke China. Only a very small group of people will want to. And of those who want to, only a very few have the means. And even fewer who have the opportunity. So China can keep an eye on those who try and eliminate them long before they can actually do anything. It is not difficult to find out who these enemies are. Chinese can do profiling just as well as Americans can. They are mostly the Muslims, the Tibetans, the Vietnamese, the Filipinos, and the Japnese. These will mostly be under the pay of the Americans. So infiltrate CIA and China will know who they are. And if necessary, blockade Vietnam or incinerate it to a waste land.

[baal]

There will be an end when China's enemies realized they have no chance of winning.

All ships can be monitored before they enter any Chinese ports. There are equipment that can detect radiation and neutron emissions. Also, ships that are suspect can be tracked even before they depart from their port of origin. Just put a cell phone or satellite phone on it and you can track its progress anywhere in the world.

Putting a nuclear bomb on a commercial jet is easier said than done. The same thing apply of monitoring nuclear materials at airports.

While it may not be possible to detect ALL attacks, it is certainly possible to deter 99.9% of all attempts. And not everybody in the world will want to nuke China. Only a very small group of people will want to. And of those who want to, only a very few have the means. And even fewer who have the opportunity. So China can keep an eye on those who try and eliminate them long before they can actually do anything. It is not difficult to find out who these enemies are. Chinese can do profiling just as well as Americans can. They are mostly the Muslims, the Tibetans, the Vietnamese, the Filipinos, and the Japnese. These will mostly be under the pay of the Americans. So infiltrate CIA and China will know who they are. And if necessary, blockade Vietnam or incinerate it to a waste land.

The only countries which wish to harm China are its neighbors. In time nuclear weapons technology will spread to all of these countries. China isn't superman...no one is.

China was lucky to have had a leader like Deng Xioaping. But leaders like him only show up rarely. The pattern of history is for great leaders to be followed by weaker leaders in each generation until the occurrence of adverse events which lead to another great leader. Btw, Mao Zedong was not a great leader. He was a great revolutionary, but China would have been better off if he had died in October 1949.