China and Vietnam's Tug of War over Laos
In at least one Southeast Asian country -- Laos -- the competition for influence is not between the US and China, but between historic rivals China and Vietnam, writes Ian Storey
By Ian Storey

Much has been written on the competition for influence in Southeast Asia among the Great Powers, particularly the United States and China, and how Beijing has made significant inroads in this respect over the past few years. However, in at least one Southeast Asian country – Laos – the competition for influence is not between the U.S. and China, but between historic rivals China and Vietnam. The United States is not a major player in Laos – its interests are narrowly focused on resolving Prisoner of War/Missing in Action (POW/MIA) issues left over from the Vietnam War, and securing Laotian cooperation in the "war on terrorism." In fact, until December 2004 Laos was one of only three countries (the other two being North Korea and Cuba) denied Normal Trade Relations (NTR) with the United States. Although Japan is the largest provider of aid to Laos, it has not translated this largesse into political influence.

The Lao People's Democratic Republic (LPDR) is a small, underdeveloped country situated in the heart of mainland Southeast Asia. As the only landlocked country in the region, it is bordered by China, Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, and Cambodia. Subsistence farming employs more than 80 percent of its 5.7 million people, reducing Laos to the status of one of the poorest countries in Asia. Laos is ranked 135th in the United Nation's 2004 Human Development Index of 177 countries, the lowest of any member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Laos joined in 1997. The LPDR has a per capita income of around $300.

Laos is one of only five remaining communist countries in the world. Since its foundation in December 1975, the LPDR has been ruled by the Lao People's Revolutionary Party (LPRP). For the first decade of its existence, Laos had a "special relationship" with Vietnam which was built on the close links forged between the LPRP and Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) in the 1930s. These links enabled Hanoi to exercise a controlling influence over the Lao communist movement during the "thirty years struggle" (1945-1975), despite the fact that Beijing essentially underwrote the Pathet Lao's (the LPRP's military wing) war effort. [1] In 1977, Laos and Vietnam entered an alliance which caused severe strains in Lao-PRC relations. These strains were exacerbated in 1978 when Laos supported Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia.

From the mid-1980s, however, Laos sought to decrease its dependence on Vietnam by reaching out to the United States, China, and ASEAN countries. Vientiane's motive was primarily economic: aid from the USSR and Vietnam was drying up, and Laos looked to more economically advanced countries to help rejuvenate the moribund economy. In the post-Cold War era, three countries dominate Lao foreign relations: Vietnam, Thailand, and China.

Although Vietnam is no longer the cornerstone of Lao foreign policy, close personal relations between Laotian and Vietnamese leaders have ensured the survival of the "special relationship." It was Hanoi that enabled the LPRP to achieve power, something elderly LPRP cadres are not apt to forget. Although the 1977 alliance was allowed to lapse in 2002, the two countries continue to maintain close security links. Vietnam is also Laos' second biggest trading partner.

Thailand's interests in Laos are predominantly economic. Prior to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, cultural and linguistic advantages enabled Thailand to establish itself as Laos' primary economic partner. However, this situation was not met with unbridled enthusiasm by the Lao government, which feared becoming over-dependent on the Thai economy. These fears proved prescient; when the Thai economy buckled in mid-1997, the ripple effect on Laos in terms of lost trade and investment was severe. Nevertheless, Thailand remains Laos' leading trade partner, taking nearly 50 percent of its exports. But Bangkok's political influence is limited since Laotians perceive Thais to be overbearing and arrogant, and Lao nationalism tends to orient itself against Thailand.

In 1988, Beijing and Vientiane normalized relations, and since the Asian Financial Crisis China's profile in the LPDR has increased considerably. China's interests in Laos are threefold. The first is China's strategic imperative of fostering close relations with all countries along its borders. Beijing's ultimate aim is to displace the political influence of other countries in Laos, primarily Vietnam but also Thailand. Second, Laos' geographic position makes it a useful conduit through which Chinese goods from its Southwest provinces can flow into the Thai market. Since 2000, Beijing has paid special attention to the development of Laos' transportation infrastructure, particularly highways linking China with Thailand. Vientiane itself has been keen to promote itself as a "landlinked" country rather than a landlocked one, though it recognizes that China and Thailand stand to gain the most. Third, the PRC has expressed a strong desire to increase imports of natural resources from Laos, including timber, iron ore, copper, gold, and gemstones.

In 1997, Laos urged China to help bail out the economy by increasing aid, trade, and investment. China – largely insulated from the effects of the economic crisis – saw its chance to increase its influence over Vientiane and responded positively with a series of bilateral agreements covering economic and technical cooperation, investment and banking, and infrastructure development. Generous export subsidies and interest-free loans provided by Beijing enabled Laos to stabilize the value of its currency during a crisis in 1998-1999. President Jiang Zemin's visit to Laos in November 2000, the first by a Chinese head of state, was emblematic of China's newfound relationship with the LPDR. Since then, the two countries have regularly exchanged high-level visits.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Lao-China two-way trade grew from $33.1 million in 1990 to $118.3 million in 2003, much of it in China's favor. [2] This makes China Laos' third biggest trade partner, though these figures almost certainly underestimate the large and lucrative cross border trade which remains off the books. According to China's Xinhua News Agency, Beijing's financial assistance to Laos during 1988-2001 amounted to $1.7 billion. [3] In June 2003, Beijing agreed to cancel much of this debt. In 2004, the government controlled Vientiane Times put total PRC investment in Laos since 1988 at $342 million, placing it among the top three foreign investors. [4] The economic importance of China to Laos was underlined at the LPRP's Seventh Party Congress in 2001 when Prime Minister Boungnang Vorachit pledged to halve the number of people below the poverty line from two to one million and triple per capita income to $1,200-1,500 by 2020 – in order to achieve these targets Boungnang highlighted the need to expand economic ties with China. [5]

China's future economic role in Laos will expand for three reasons. Firstly, China's voracious appetite for Laos' natural resources. Secondly, Lao goods cannot compete with cheaper Chinese goods in the domestic market. Thirdly, since Laos' opening up to the outside world, it has relied heavily on economic aid from countries like Japan, Sweden, France, and Australia, as well as multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, IMF, and ADB. Donor fatigue is beginning to set in as the Lao government resists pressure to fundamentally reform the country's legal, financial and, most sensitively, political systems. The PRC, on the other hand, provides aid to Laos without calling for major reforms that would loosen the LPRP's control over the political and economic life of the country.

China and Vietnam are strategic competitors for influence over Laos. For the present, the personal ties between senior LPRP and VCP leaders ensure that Hanoi maintains the upper hand in terms of political influence. But this situation will not last forever. Once senior LPRP leaders pass from the scene, Vietnam's influence will diminish accordingly. The next generation of LPRP cadres has little direct experience of the revolutionary period that brought the party to power, and the crucial role Vietnam played in its success. The beginnings of a generational shift are already underway, and the Eighth Party Congress scheduled for 2006 may see the retirement of a cohort of elderly leaders. While talk of "pro-China" and "pro-Vietnam" factions within the party is almost certainly overplayed (the LPRP looks to both countries for aid, trade, and investment), it is true to say that fraternal feelings toward Vietnam are much stronger among the older generation than the younger generation.

China can offer Laos everything Vietnam currently provides plus much more. Obviously China's economy is much larger than Vietnam's, and its gravitational pull on Laos is enormous. China's "soft power" is also growing. Increasingly, LPRP cadres are traveling to China to attend seminars on how to transition from a command to "socialist market" economy – something China has much more experience with than Vietnam. The Chinese government has substantially increased the number of scholarships available to Laotians to study at Chinese universities. Lao-PRC military-to-military ties are also expanding, with more Laotians undertaking officer training in the PRC, and China is in a much better position than Vietnam to help modernize the cash-strapped Lao armed forces.

In the competition for influence over Laos, China has adopted a long-term strategy. Beijing is prepared to wait until the older generation of LPRP leaders with strong fraternal bonds to Vietnam fade from the political scene. In the meantime, China nurtures younger LPRP cadres through its large diplomatic presence in Vientiane and by bringing members of the Lao elite to the PRC to undertake ideological, vocational, and military education. At the same time, Beijing carefully targets its aid programs in Laos to achieve maximum effect with minimum resources. Thus, China has financed high-profile initiatives such as civic beautification projects in central Vientiane and a $7 million cultural center. Perhaps it is no coincidence that this lavish building now hosts LPRP party congresses.

Laos' failure to achieve economic self-sufficiency since colonial times has reduced it to the status of perpetual mendicancy. Within the next decade or so China seems destined to become the LPDR's largest trade partner and source of external funding, and hence its new closest friend in Asia.







Notes:
1. Xioming Zhang, "China's Involvement in Laos During the Vietnam War, 1963-1975", The Journal of Military History, Vol. 66, No. 4 (October 2002).
2. Asian Development Bank
www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/2004/pdf/LAO.pdf
3. "China, Laos cooperation set to further prosper: Lao official," Xinhua News Agency, May 12, 2002.
4. "Laos-China trade down this year", Vientiane Times, October 1, 2004.
5. "Lao-Chinese cooperative relations should be further promoted: Lao PM", Xinhua News Agency, April 25, 2001.
Dr. Ian Storey is an Assistant Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Honolulu. He specializes in Southeast Asian security issues. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the APCSS, U.S. Pacific Command, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

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China, Burma, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia , vietnam should form the Mekong River Alliance, afterall, the water from the Mekong River all originated from highland in China , and it nurturing generations of people in that region..

Guess there is no friend forever.

This theory by the authors has too many loop holes and the main evidence he presents for his theory is the amount of aid China gives to Laos while discounting other important factors.

These "younger LPRP cadres" should always be mindful of three things:

1. North Korea
2. Khmer Rouge
3. Darfur

LOL.... China is the new imperialist where the mother country would exploit the natural resources of the smaller country to manufacture products which it sell back to the smaller country that it got the resources from. Trading with China would also mean that there will be a trade deficit. Just look that the European, American, and right now Vietnam.

Germany has a trade surplus with China. I'm not sure about Japan or S. Korea. Not all countries have a trade deficit with China, though most obviously do.

But it's very fishy why they are trying so hard to woo the younger generation of Laotian leaders. Frankly, they're up to no good. Their support of Pakistan is really about India. Their support of N. Korea, if one can call it "support", is really about the US. Their "support" of the KR controlled Cambodia, was really about Vietnam.

I'm not saying it is a good thing for Laos to be dominated by Hanoi. But I'm am saying it can potentially be a devastating tragedy for Laos to be dominated by Beijing.

I think there's much more to the story than what's written. Would the U.S. let this happen? There's a lot of tension between China and the U.S. though. Doesn't America want to break up china because it is too powerful? U.S. wanting to start war with China has been out in the news. America is trying to become friends with Vietnam, and both america and vietnam doesn't like china. It makes you think.

Frankly, many people tend to forget their history and they become brainwashed easily too.

It's not up to the US. It's debatable if the US would intervene on Taiwan's behalf if China attacked Taiwan, despite the US-Taiwan security treaty. American military analysts say it is not worth it.


You mean contain China. China's military is not that strong, but it has nukes and a military age population that is greater than the entire US population. For these two reasons, no one wants to mess with China unless it is outright attacked by China, i.e. unless forced too.


Vietnam "doesn't like China" because China attacks Vietnam on average once every 100 years or so. Vietnam always wins, but China keeps comming back regardless.

America "doesn't like China", yet it is America who is doing it darndest to help the Chinese economy and technological development which will eventually lead to China's dominance--an economic dominance by 2050 or so, and a TOTAL DOMINANCE by about 100 years.


Yes, it does.

I hope Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, along with other 6 countries of ASEAN are wise enough to cooperate with each other. As a block of 10 countries, it can handle the pressure of powerful countries such as China or the United States. This will prevent China, United States, Russia, or similar countries to use smaller country of ASEAN as a pawn in the past.

lol, I see alot vietnameses got agitated.. I like to see what the hmong and laos think for themselves.

There's a reason why thailand, burma, cambodia and laos cooperate with china besides economic and political influence. With the exception of vietnam.

I also mentions the water source for mekong river originate from highland of China. I read that China could easily do some water project and divert the water away from mekong river and then that would total disaster. That's something not even the alliance with US, india, japan or south korea can save that..

So, the total package of economic, political and water source enough influence for the china in that region..

ASEAN is too loose /w too many nationalities. there's no strong leader to lead the pack. Economic cooperation, yes. other than that, I don't see much else. Some people try to model it after the EU, but those developed nations. It's entirely a different story.
ASEAN is just a hollow concept.. who in that group really willing to give large economic aid to the real poor countries? It all sounds fine and dandy, but it feeds no mouth. Those poor people don't give damn about politics.

Well, the poor people of Darfur and North Korea do care about politics. They're dying over it...

Remember that Laos has a trade surplus with Vietnam that comes back in the 1970s after Laos couldn't trade with anyone except for Vietnam. If the special relations ended, that surplus that Vietnam granted to Laos will be cut and that is worth more than the aid that China gives.

Not to mention, Vietnam lets Laos use its coastline. A landlocked country is really disadvantaged economically without a coast line.

Sure China has a coast line too that they can offer Laos, but look how far it is from Southern Laos. Vietnam's coast line is very close to all of Laos. If Laos were to become Vietnam's enemy, Vietnam can just revoke their coastline privileges and the Laos economy would be crippled as seaborne trade is a huge impact for any economy today.

Is Laos gonna give up all that just for aid from China? This is what the author didn't even bother to mention. I'm not even gonna mention some of the Lao officials who have Vietnamese blood in them too.

ASEAN will adopt the ASEAN Charter in September 2007. This Charter is similar to the United States Constitution in terms of laws and rules that each ASEAN country has to abide. This is a big step forward for the peace and prosperity of ASEAN.

I don't particularly think that the U.S. won't intervene, however we'll see. Thank you for shedding more light on the vietnam-china issues. But no, I actually meant "break up china". I'm not sure if this is public news but a friend of mine pays attention to world news a lot, and they've told me that U.S. has plans to break up china into separate countries.

I forgot to add something else. Since the U.S. wants to befriend Vietnam. I would think that U.S. wants to do that so Vietnam can help fight China together. I'm sure there are other reasons why U.S. wants to befriend Vietnam, but I'm just saying. It's just a speculation. Sometimes you just gotta put the pieces together.

I'm sure there are reasons for why it seems like the U.S. is helping China.

I've been reading up on the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's files from 2001. There's some pretty interesting context in there that makes me think about this whole "U.S. helping China" situation.

thats ok because Laos will use Cambodia's coast line if that ever happens

LMAO, yeah, US thought about that of breaking up China during Mao time, but when China had the nukes, then forget it.
Why the US wants to help China economically? Simple, US doesn't want see the most populated country in the world that nuke armed and become its enemy.

your friend work for the CIA? Actually which country really want to break up china? I tell the secret..remember, it's a secret, pls don't share with anybody else..

Here's the list, japan, south korea, india.. vietnam can join the list if it wants... so get it? remember it's top secret. don't share /w anybody else..












.............. Got it? .....IDIOT!!

This is the East West Economic Corridor.

The road that connects Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam will be completed soon.


http://www.visit-mekong.com/ewec/index.htm

I don't think Hanoi will ever let that happen, it will find someway to intervene because Laos is vital to Vietnam national security. Just to think of Chinese troops in Laos is a no-no. It would be a nightmare for Vietnam.

Cambodia's coastline is far away from just the south of Laos. Not to mention it is even farther for trade to go from Northern Laos all the way to Cambodia's coastline. Vietnam's coastline is very close to all locations in Laos and much larger than Cambodia's coastline and much more strategic which is what helping fuel much of Saigon's economy. Cambodia's coastline only leads to Gulf of Thailand and not the Pacific ocean and South China sea.

Laos government would have to be insane if they are willing to give up a huge chunk of their trade and economic livelihood for a few aid dollars from China.

Hmm. Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Only a democratic China would potentially break up. A communist/totalitarian China will never break up. It is too strong. I myself predict that China (and for that matter Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Cuba...) will eventually become democratic, once the old hardliners die off and there is prosperity. Think of Tiananmen. How can you control the minds of kids who listen to Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin & Snoop Dogg on their IPods?!? The next generation of Chinese will be more educated, wealthier, more liberal, more aware... And more so for the generations that follow.

The potential "breakaway republics" would be Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, etc., and of course, Taiwan. Beijing knows this and is trying to avoid it this way: "Genocide" by ethnic Chinese immigration & interrmarriage in these provinces.


O yeah, the US has been courting Vietnam BIG TIME for about a dozen years now. But Hanoi is still playing hard to get. Frankly, Hanoi doesn't have much of a choice in the long run. And they know this.


Speaking of the CIA... Just to let you know... The m.o. (modus operandii) of the CIA is to woo young officers of a military in pretty much every country in the world to come to the US and get military & political training. They personal forge bonds with these guys, keep close tabs on them, befriend them, etc., and when the times comes, if they are needed, they recruit them for coup d'états. This is exactly what happens time after time, the last time being the attempted overthrow of Chávez in Venezuela. Everyone of those God damn officers involved had intimate connections with the CIA. Fortunately for Latin & South America, it failed.

Now what do you think the PRC, CCP & PLA want with all those young Laotian communist party members for?



Lao's best friends are those that give, but only want more freedoms for it's people:



It's always a good idea to know who your real friends are. And who's the snake hiding in the bushes.

Well, they're certainly insane if they don't remember the KR, North Korea, and Darfur, Tibet, Tiananmen,...

All China and N. Korea experts agree: If the Beijing wanted to, it could end the Kim Jong-Il regime practically overnight by turning off the oil and gas pipelines. Pyongyang would implode very, very quickly and we'd be seeing Kim Jong-Idiot hanging on a lamp post in down town Pyongyang on CNN.

Beijing gives nothing for free. Years from now they'll engineer a coup--if the opportunity ever presents itself. Life under a Chinese dominated government will be much worse than life under a Vietnamese dominated government. Just ask the Cambodians, who tragically have already forgotten and blame Vietnam for everything--including those "killing fields", which the Chinese knew about and supported. BTW, there were over 10,000 PLA advisors in Cambodia when Vietnam invaded.

Seriously, though ultimately selfish in motivation, Vietnam has been a decent friend to Laos, but Laos' best friends are the Japanese, Swedes, French, Australians, etc., who give, but in return demand only more freedom for Laotian citizens.

China should just take over all SEAN countries. Cut the water and see if they can still resist. But really, either relationship with other countries, Laos will suffer ultimately in the end. Laos has nothing to gain but to lose. Countries like Laos will be exploited because its incompetent leadership. Vietnam prosper after the war because of Cambodia and Laos.

Are you using drugs, mate? Please stop being so delusional.

Vietnamese folks here sure are working very hard to convince Bejing 's aid is bad for laos. What's the deal? Let me say this,the author of article is an Amercian, not chinese or vietnamese, he doesn't have any natural inclination to favor either China or Vietnam. He's third party and should give alot more objective point of view than what the vietnameses in this forum is presenting.. You can argue all you want, but if the viewpoint is excessive from one side, you know it's going get skewed.

Whether the aid is good or bad for Laos , let them decide. I don't think vietnamese should be one decide that is bad for them. It's not right.

I post this article to see the lao's reaction but instead I draw overwhelming reactions from the vietnameses.
One thing for sure is this thing touches alot of nerves on the vietnamese side, which tells me alot. I have a sense they feel insecure.

Shouldn't China know it already?

It is the mandate of heaven and earth that Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam are part of ASEAN.

If China goes against the mandate of heaven and earth, then China will cause the harmony to be unbalanced.

Shouldn't you know it already?

If you wanna get Lao opinions then post it in the Laos forums. Why would you post it in the Hmong forums when the majority of Hmong are in Southern China?

And yes the author of the article is American? Does it mean his viewpoint is 100% correct? Like I said he left out a lot of other factors and assumed that foreign aid is the only factor that would win Laos's favour.

You guys are nut.

Yes, Laos is a relatively weak country in terms of economy, politics and military, and has no seaports of its own and has to depend on its neighbors. But to assume that it will run from one country that it perceives as being less rich to one that can provide it with more aids is crazy. Anyway, the article made it sound like Laos had no other choice than to be under the influence of one more powerful country to the next.

It has been its political tactic that Laos tries to have a good relationship in terms of economic, political, and cultural exchanges with all its neighbors. Depending on just one or a few countries is risky. Any country knows that.

In addition to Thailand and Vietnam, the first two most important current trading partners, Laos has begun to slowly open up to the giant China. Yes, Laos has received an increasingly important amount of aids from China, as it has long had also from Vietnam and other countries. That's not free as you believe. In return, Laos has no money to pay back and ends up having its natural resources exploited, including deforestation. Politically, Laos may become warmer to China but this doesn't mean it will be used as a base for China. One way or another Laos has to get out of poverty and progress further like other nations, without forgetting all risks involved when it gets help from it neighbors or any country. It knows its position in the peninsula, its weaknesses and its strengths.

Laos has sent an increasing number of students to China, but it's not like those returning from China within a few years will take over the power when the older generation dies off. It has for decades sent hundreds or even thousands of the younger Lao generations to be trained in Vietnam as well. Also, there are universities and private schools in Laos that enroll an increasing number of students. Besides, current leaders have now sent their sons and daughters to pursue their studies in western countries. These young generations all have the potential to represent the future leaders of Laos. No one knows what will happen in one or two decades when the Chinese and Vietnamese become more prosperous and when Laos will have also further developed from its current level.

In the future, Laos will always need Vietnam in terms of seaports because those are the most convenient and practical, which China cannot provide. The east-west corridor is being built between Thailand-Laos-Vietnam. Although it will mostly profit the economic exchanges between north-eastern Thailand and central Vietnam, Laos will definitely profit from it, especially for the development of the southearn part of Laos. Of course there will be problems associated with illegal workers, delinquents, and sexworkers that will emerge and need to be taken care of. The corridor will probably expand its link to northern Cambodia in the future, thereby stengthening economic exchanges between the four countries. It's nothing new that China has tried to influence Lao politics, but Laos has never really been drawn into the Chinese orbit, at least not until now.

In terms of Chinese and Viet people living in Laos, the Chinese are mostly in business as the Lao people are mostly their customers. They have their own Chinese school in Vientiane to teach their children to become the next generation of businessmen. The Vietnameses work many types of jobs from shoe repairers, sandwhich merchants, to mechanicians, ingeneers, to teachers, and are more like the average Lao people living in cities, and have more interactions and intermarriages with Lao people than do the Chinese. Many Viet dishes have been popular among Lao and integrated into Lao food.

Whatever and whoever you guys may think will have more influence over Laos, it's Thailand that has and will have the most influence on Lao people because of the very similar languages and cultures. It's like dealing with their brothers and sisters who live just across the Mekong, although there have always been some tensions among us. Besides, Thailand is and will remain the most important trading partner for Laos. Those dams that are being built or will be built will mostly sell electricity to Thailand. At the same time, Laos will always be a good friend of Vietnam that will provide convenient access to the sea, preventing Laos from being totally dependent on the Thai seaports and will keep reminding Lao people they are a distinct country and not a province of Thailand. Laos will have bigger economic and political exchanges with Cambodia as well when it becomes economically stronger and more prosperous. I don't see that Laos will become dependent on China alone to the point it becomes its satellite. Involvement with China will help both stabilize Laos and strengthen its position in the region.

There is an article below on the influence of China and its future potential role and how it is perceived by souht-east asians.

Once a US stomping ground, Southeast Asia is seeing greater Chinese involvement in diplomacy, trade, investment, cultural and educational exchanges as well as foreign aid

Asia Pacific News
Military build-up seen hitting China's inroads in Asia
Posted: 12 August 2007 1039 hrs
Military build-up seen hitting China's inroads in Asia
WASHINGTON: China may be making huge strides in projecting "soft
power" in Southeast Asia amid US preoccupation in Iraq, but the region
remains wary of the Asian giant's military ambitions, experts say.

Once a US stomping ground, Southeast Asia is seeing greater Chinese
involvement in diplomacy, trade, investment, cultural and educational
exchanges as well as foreign aid to less developed states.

A critical component of China's "soft power" diplomacy is the emphasis
on engaging the region as a whole -- unlike the United States, which
has focused primarily on bilateral relations.

The United States helped set up the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) as a bulwark against communism 40 years ago, but today
China is "increasingly the most influential external actor in dealing
with ASEAN," said Joshua Kurlantzick, a visiting scholar at the
Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Also, unlike the United States, China has acceded to ASEAN's Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation -- a non-aggression treaty -- and forged a free
trade agreement with the group comprising Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam.

"This makes it appear like China is more committed to regional free
trade, and there has been much less protest in Southeast Asia against
the China deal than against some of the deals with the US," said
Kurlantzick, author of "Charm Offensive: How China's Soft Power Is
Transforming the World."

When Washington tightened visa policies after the September 11, 2001
attacks, Beijing moved to aggressively encourage Chinese education in
the region -- funding primary schools, setting up Confucian institutes
at universities, and offering scholarships and visitor programs for
rising Asian leaders, Kurlantzick said.

"As a result, China is going to train many of the next generation of
ASEAN opinion leaders, who once would have gone to the US or the UK or
Australia," he said.

Despite China capitalising on US policy mistakes to boost its charm
offensive in the region, President George W. Bush's administration
seems unperturbed.

"Having more China does not mean less US in Southeast Asia," said US
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill. "There is plenty of
room for all of us and we don't see China as a 'winner,'" he said.

Hill said that Washington was not competing with China "for the hearts
and souls of Southeast Asia.

"In fact, we want Southeast Asia to have a good relationship with
China. We do not see this at all as opposed to our interests."

But China is beginning to notice US attempts to counter Beijing's
influence, especially amid concerns over Chinese military build-up
that could challenge traditional US naval dominance in the region.

At a recent seminar on trends in the distribution of military,
economic and "soft" power in Asia Pacific hosted by the US-based East-
West Centre, Chinese participants cited perceived US attempts to build
"counter-Chinese coalitions" in the region, an expert said.

"Responses to the Chinese arguments, both by Americans and some other
Asian participants, were that China's open and positive approach is
welcomed and has improved China's image in the region," said Richard
Baker, an Asia-Pacific expert at the centre.

But, Baker, a former US diplomat, said the participants also noted
"lingering uncertainties and scepticism as to China's future conduct"
with its increasing "hard power."

Beijing announced an official military budget of 45 billion US dollars
for 2007. The US Defence Intelligence Agency however estimates that it
is up to three times the amount.

More specifically, China's naval build-up is sparking regional
insecurities and fuelling an arms race according to Stratfor, a
leading US security consulting intelligence agency.

"The more China focuses on its maritime frontiers, the more alarm
bells will sound in East Asia and the United States," the agency said
in a recent commentary.

Against this growing suspicion, China has to show greater goodwill and
respect for its regional partners before its soft power is fully
effective in creating a "positive" image in the region, according to
some participants at the East-West Centre conference. - AFP/ac

Listen, watch that film "The Killing Fields". There were over 11,000 PLA advisors in Cambodia when Vietnam (justifiably) invaded. Beijing knew exactly what was going down. They continued to arm and aid the KR for at least 10 years after Vietnam ousted them. That is the nature of Chinese aid.

In N. Korea, there are rampant rumors of cannibalism. The recent famine killed about 2 million people. Kim Jong Idiot has biological and chemical weapons research facilities where he uses his own people. The PRC could easily topple him by cutting off the gas and oil pipelines. But they don't. China has always played dirty when it comes to the Korean peninsula, among many other places. During the Imjin Wars, they came to the Ming troops rescue but deliberately took their time. This is the nature of Chinese aid.

I won't even get into China's duplicity with Vietnam throughout the last millenia.

Also, they estimate about 100,000 people have been killed in Darfur, Sudan. The PRC has been protecting the Sudanese government from sanctions and condemnation at the UN. It's a fact, look it up. This is the nature of Chinese aid.

Lastly, as Byron said, why are you posting this in the Hmong thread? During the 1980's, the PRC was arming Hmong insurgents against the Laotian government set up by Hanoi. So what are you up to?

LOL

I'm not for the domination of Laos or Cambodia--by anyone. But having said that, they've faired much better under Vietnam, than under China. Self-genocide seems to be the common theme amongst recipients of PRC "aid".


And how many American/CIA trained Venezuelan officers do you think were involved in the nearly successful attempt to overthrow Chavez in Venezuela?

It doesn't take that many.

Vietnamese involvement/domination in Laos has been of the kinder gentler variety. It is selfish in nature, but has also been giving Laos real aid, despite Vietnam's utter poverty, in large part due to the crippling embargo which China supported. This embargo was for Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia. An occupation that was very naively criticized. The entire world applauded Vietnam when it overthrew the KR. But then foolishly condemned Vietnam for occupying Cambodia for about 10 years. Why was this subsequent about-face criticism stupid? B'coz if Vietnam had pulled out, the KR would have been right back in Cambodia with Chinese aid and they would reopened those "killing fields" for business faster than you can say: Toul Sleng. Anyone saying otherwise is an idiot, a liar or both. Vietnam paid dearly for this occupation: 20,000 lives and enormous resources.

Now how many Cambodians were killed by the KR? How many PLA advisors were in Cambodia when Vietnam ousted the KR?

Chinese involvement in Laos has always been nefarious. Vietnamese involvement has been selfish. Chinese involvement in Cambodia was genocidal. Chinese involvement in N. Korea has been genocidal. Chinese involvement in Sudan has been likewise genocidal. They don't do it directly, but they aid and abet the people who do. This is the undeniable historical record.

Selfish vs Nefarious/Genocidal. Take your pick.

But there's also a third choice: The Western countries and Japan, etc.

I'd advise Laotians to go with the West.

Delusional? Aren't we all sometimes? In theory, it is a great idea for all SEAN countries to be bounded as one like the EU, however, that isn't the case with this article. If it's economic interest that a countries after, it meant a buffet of exploitations. Business will be good in short term but what about long term? Laos isn't a rich country, at it's current level, they're about to become the worlds export in dump site. Their precious natural resources are running almost dry.

China's influence and power is inevitable, even the western world are taken by it.

China tried to in Cambodia with the KR, and then tried again with Vietnam in 1979. They were humliated by the Vietnamse in both attempts.


This would be tantamount to genocide. And thus, a cause for war. Besides, the Thais are close to the US, if not an outright satelite. The Mekong river goes thru Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam
.

Cheer up Grumpy Smurf.


On the contrary, Vietnam sunk an enormous amount of its limited resources into both countries. Vietnam suffered from the crippling embargo due to its occupation of Cambodia. Historically, Vietnam has always been properous and highly productive.

So you're quite mistaken.

China never used full force on Vietnam. They just went in and killed a few thousand people and left as punishment for your persecution of ethnic Chinese.

If you tried to start an all out war they'd just take all their polluted water and chemicals and dump it on you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnam_War

Pulling a moobie's move

Vietnam : 200,000 killed
China : 20,000 killed

That wiki article is weak and most of its "facts" don't have any sources which is why it was tagged as such, and the sources that appear seem to be all Chinese sources. lol



Yep that's what happens when you have too many nerds with nothing better to do than rewrite history on wikipedia with exaggerated figures like 200,000 killed with no references and even the PRC doesn't even claim that they killed that much.

^claim by who? 200,000 is just ridiculous.

nice simplification from this

Casualties
Disputed. 20,000 killed? [2] Vietnam claims 26,000. [2] China claims 6,900 killed, 15,000 wounded [1] Disputed. 20,000 killed or wounded. [1] 200,000 killed? [2] China claims 40,000. [2] Vietnam claims 100 civilians killed [1

Guess what? That "punishment" didn't do anything, as Vietnam still persecuted them and we even went further after the war by kicking them out of the country. I guess the punishment was a failure. I still think it was wrong for the Vietnamese government to persecute the Chinese though.

200,000 probably isn't soldiers, mostly civilians.



They're probably glad they left. And China killed hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese civilians as payback. So what's done is done.

Notice how the 200,000 in the wikipedia article has a question mark after it? A question mark that indicates that it is probably a bs figure. But then again that article is written by someone in China so it is kinda bias, we need a neutral source, hence why I don't even trust articles about that war from my own kind since it could be bias as well.

This guy is unbelievable.

Yes, I'm sure your grand myths of fighting off 10 times the numbers in Chinese with peasant women is very accurate. No, Chinese people aren't self-aggrandizing monkeys. Talk to whites if you want something like that.

Hey, Miss Sassy-Pants, look who's gettin' agitated now.

I don't support what the Vietnamese government did during the boat people crisis. My condolences to them.

Maybe if Vietnamese didn't chase their ethnic minorities out of their country, China wouldn't have sent random soldiers in to kill 200,000 civilians. Or something.

Ok so if I go to wiki and change the Chinese casualities to 1 million and list no source, then you should believe it too, Mr. "I believe things with no source and a question mark after them."

rofl I was responding to supernova who wasn't being 100% serious in the first place.

but then again i don't buy vietnam's horse$hit about fighting off 10 times their numbers with peasant women. i could care less either way.

Byron, maybe we should go to that wiki link and change the number to 400,000 Vietnamese killed by a only one Chinese superhero. Hopefully it will make him happy and shut him up for good.

P.S. This guy is a joke. I gave up debating him in that verbal IQ thread b'coz of all the gargabe he keep posting. I'm giving up with him in the Physics thread. And I'm not gonna bother here either.

No, better make that 1 Chinese superhero single-handedly kills 3 Billion Vietnamese!