By analyzing where this world is going, we are going to face to another power broker in new world, and this time it's you guess it, The Mighty China.

For Korea's point of view, this can means good & bad.

Because Korea is so close to China, Korea can access to massive market and huge economic opportunities, but also means Korea must compete against to huge China, and it ain't going to be easy.

Korea already enjoy good & friendly relationship with China and Japan even with some disputes, and I don't think Korea will prefer war with her neighbors.

Please do not comments on how Korea should be doing in China's point of view, but strictly Korean view. Let us discuss how Korea should prepare for new world. Try leaving aggressive views on China, let's presume China will play nice.

In my opinion, Korean should start talking with China about linking railways and roads for trades and joint security exercise for anti-terrorism.
Also improve more cultural exchanges such as Arts.

After all China is going to be Korea's fixed neighbor.

For Chinese members, please don't turn this thread into junks. - If you have opinions then please do so with friendly manner.

Note: Let's leave the NK, Japan, & USA or Russia factors

they might be close but there is a big language barrier between korea and china's financial centers.

Language issue is not big problem nowdays. Millions of Koreans also learning Chinese, it won't be easy but having multi-language skills is another Korean should have.

no milion of korean learning chinese

That assumption has already been proven to be flawed. The Uri party members assumed that China will play nice so they chose China as the most important strategic partner, but that's when the Chinese government stabbed them right in the back by claiming that Korean history is theirs and started colonizing North Korea. Now Uri Party is gone. Serves them right for being idiots. And now, Korean senior leaders in both the right and left express strong concerns for the rising China threat, and this is a concern that the absolute majority(more than 80%) of Koreans share.

Yes, China is going to be Korea's fixed neighor, and that's why we have to maintain vigilance and military preparedness. That's precisely what you do when you have a criminal living next door.

Claming Korean history my foot. Koguryo had little to do with Koreans. Again and again we have seen loads of evidences indicating that Koreans are descents of Silla. The Samguk Sakgi of yours should be renamed Silla Sagi. 80% of info pertaining in that oldest official korean history book was about Silla. The book also told us koryo people had no clue about Koguryo's customs, culture, language, attire, and governing system. All the details pertaining in Samguk Sagi regarding Koguryo were direct cut and paste work of original Chinese sources.


Lingusitically, koguryo people spoke tungusic-like language. Koreanic-silla spoke Korean.
Culturally, Koguryo was a multi-ethnic kingdom with tungusic culture in its core, whereas Koreans were more like Japonic-Wa.
Ethnically, Koguryo people were tungusic. koreans were and are more similar to Japanese Wa people.
Poltically, Koguryo was enemy state of Koreanic-Silla who subjugated Silla most of time.

Just becasue Koguryo ruled half of the korean peninsula did not make them koreans.

Just because koryo faked the name of Koguryo did not make Koryo inherit Koguryo political legitmacy. Khitans always claimed to be the political hier of Koguryo. Did that make them Koguyro history part of Khitan history? No.

Just because a small portion of Koguryo refugees fled to Southern peninsula did not make Koguryo history korean.

Some interesting points, but we are not here to argue who really owns history, as most of history stuffs are distorted by survivals, dead can't speak. So we can't assumed Korea is from just Silla or Koguryeo or what ever. Btw, there is no more Silla or Goguryeo.

Some claimed Koreans are more close to Japonic race, some say Tungusic, or mongols but in my opinion they are all true because more than half of modern Korean genes contains Tungusic origins and rest are either mongolic or japonic, beside Korea peninsula is sitting right between japonic and tungusic regions. So I'm not surprise at multiple NE Asian stocks formed today's Koreans.

When Silla united most of factions back in end of Three-Kingdom period, more than half of new Silla's population were non-Silla factions.

Back to current thread discussion, let's forget this history stuffs for now.

We are discussing about Korea's future and it's foreign relations with Greater China.

This is a Korean troll topic.

No one has time to read the same sh!t over and over again.

Since all three of you are the same person, may be you can just continue to talk to yourself. Have fun!

even better, let's just assume that korea is gonna play nice

what options have china got?

Please do not post on this thread Davee or meiyou or what ever you are. Chinese trolls are not welcome on this thread.

i dont think china, russia, or US will take over the world.

we will probably have a bunch of nanobots by then that will devour all of humanity.

You Koreans do scare of Chinese are you guys?

Relax, Chinese domination is only their day dream, the fact is Chinese never fought the real enemies like Romans, Greeks and Persians, and Indians.

Well they did fought the hun during the Han dynasty, which forced the hun to moved to Europe and was responsble for the collapse of East Roman
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Wu_of_Han_China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiongnu

China has to keep Korea afloat, otherwise we will join the other side.

I thought you guys already join the other side

Actually, Korea is still trying to have a good relationship with China (some would say foolishly).

The whole world needs each other to survive. So this is not surprising factor.

China needs investments, machinery and parts from Korea, Korea need cheap labor and cheap parts and we have genuine relationship. Even without this $$$$ relationship, China still needs Korea as strategic partner against aggressors like America or Russia.

Korea needs China to export its product, and currently China is one of the largest trading partners of Korea, Korea enjoy trade surplus with China. without China, Korea's economic will not grow as fast as we have seem today.

We all know this, it's plain facts even South Koreans knows. China also needs parts from Korea to produce export quality products.
Shanghai Cars are made with Korean auto parts as well as many Plasma & LCD screens made from China also uses Korean parts.

Btw, most of machineries used to produce electronics are mostly from Japan. It's never ending life cycle, soon China will sell their parts to Korea & Japan for productions, already we have seen Chinese made parts being used in many Korean & Japanese brands.

Korea is currently enjoying surplus trade with China because China can't get quality parts cheaper from other countries, beside in terms of logistic point of view, it far cheaper to buys from Korea.

The effect that the Chinese economy has on the Korean economy is multi-faceted. It brought many benefits to Korea, such as a new market for its products, but also many obstacles, such as competition. Without China, many of the Korean manufacturers would've stayed in Korea, or perhaps went to some other countries to outsource labor. So in the end, under the assumption that China didn't exist at all, it's quite possible that Korea, or actually the rest of Asia, would've been better off. The real losers in such a scenario would be the consumers of the developed world who'd have to purchase more expensive goods produced in Korea and other Asian economies in the absense of cheaper goods produced in China.

Anyways, many analysts in Korea point out that Korea's dependency on China, though not as serious as other Asian economies such as Taiwan or ASEAN, is detrimental to Korea's long-term econimic and strategic interests and urge for trade diversification to lessen the dependency.

Nonetheless, I do believe China brought more opportunity than problems for Korea. China's cheap labor was a basis for which many Korean middle-class could become factory owners and financial investors.

I have to disagree with your assumption that if China didn't exist, Korea would have been better off. The presence of China is the major factor that contribute to the recovery of Asia economy. Its true that Korea could move its factories to other developing countries to exploit cheap labor, but without the China's market, could Korea really sustain its growth, i doubt it. Korea is still heavily rely on export, 40% of GDP is come from export. With 1.3 billion people next to your country, it create a huge opportunity for Korean companies as well as investors. China is Korea's largest trading partner, exceeded USA in 2002.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FB11Ad01.html


Going forward, China reliance on export will gradually decrease due to its huge population and internal market, while Korea on another hand will continue rely on export led growth. So maintain a close and friendly relationship with China is really in the best interest of Korea.

There is never a problem with having too many economic ties.

Actually, much of Korea's exports to China are advanced parts that Korean factories in China need for the assemblies of finished products to sell in developed economies. As one analyst puts it, it's a "division of labor". If China didn't exist, many manufacturing jobs needed in the assemblies of finished products would've stayed in Korea or went to other Asian economies. Same can be said of the massive amounts of foreign investments that China absorbed. If China didn't exist, those foriegn investments would have went to the other Asian economies, but not necessarily Korea because Korean economy is not FDI-driven.

And again, many analysts caution that this kind of trade dependency on China, even though Korea's trade dependency is relatively low compared to other countries in Asia, is dangerous in the long term to Korea's economic and strategic interests. Korean and Chinese economy are not compatible with eachother, and Korea actively engaging in FTA agreements with the US and EU while shunning that with China shows us just how benefitial closer trade relationship with China actually is to us.

Over the past 15 year, China gov't has invested over 700 billion in infrastructure, I don't see any Asia country has that amount of money to spend. I'm talking about those world class highways, dam, railroads, bridges, seaports and airports. If China didn't exist, Asian economy will not have such robust growth as we have seen today.

As for FDI, before 97, we have seem many southeast Asia counties were able to attracted huge FDI, but can they sustain it, once foreign companies decided to pull out, their economies collapse overnight.

So how does improving infrastructure in China benefit growth of other Asian economies? It pays Chinese workers and it benefits foreign and domestic investors in China, driving away investments from other Asian economies.

Yeah, foreign comapnies decided to pull out of SEA economies, and went to China instead. That contradicts your claim that China fueled Asia's recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis, and supports mine that without China, other Asian economies would've been better off, especially SEA that lost a lot of manufacturing industries and FDI to China. Oh, and in Korea's case, it was Japan that provided much help for recovery. The biggest beneficiary of the Asian Financial Crisis was China, which sucked in investment capital from most surrounding economies.

Anyways, to get back to the main issue here - would closer trade relationship with China benefit the Korean economy? The answer is, again, no. In the long term, such a trade relationship would be detrimental to Korea's economic and strategic interests, and China is given the lowest priority among the countries or economic blocks that Korea wants to get into a FTA trade deal.

And another good case that proves China's economic rise is detrimental to Korean economic and strategic interests is China's colonization of North Korea and exploitation of its natural resources. China's "economic" involvement in North Korea is extremely detrimental to Korea's prospect for unification and economic development, and it shows us how conflicting the economic interests of Korea and China will become in the long run.

Well there are many foreign companies doing business and build factories in China,those world class infrastructure allow them to get thing done quicker, transport their product cheaper.

First, China plays an important role during the 97 financial crisis because China didnt let its currency to depreciate. Second after China joined WTO in 2001, and eliminated Tariff, within a year, China overtook USA as Korea's big trading partner. Companies getting more orders coming China, and that really help Korea's economy.you have to admit that without China, Korea's economy ( as well as Japan) would not be able to recover in such short period of time. At same China also start import goods from SE Asia, thats why lot countries in Asia enjoy trade surplus with China.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2005/011005.htm

Again in the case of NK, they want to improve their economy, but lack capital since the country has been isolate for decades from the rest of world due to sanction . and the main source of getting capital is to sell natural resources to country that want to buy, and in this case China obviously is the best choice. Also does China involvement in Korea improve NK economy and create job opportunities for NK people? Do you want China to cut investment in NK and let those people starve to die? Again China did not force NK to sign those 50 year lease agreement, those agreement were made by both parties.

I believe I've already pointed out that much of Korean exports to China are parts going to Korean factories in China. Don't you find it interesting that growth of Asian economies, incluidng South Korea and Japan, dulled since Chinese economy began developing? Somehow some people attribute growth of these economies after the Asian Financial Crisis to China's economic rise, assming these Asian economies couldn't have grown on their own. The fact is though that much of investments were diverted to China from other Asian economies during the Asian Financial Crisis, and China was the biggest benefitiary of this crisis. Again, other Asian economies would've been better off without China.

And as for North Korea, it does badly need cash, but there was an international sanction in place to pressure North Korea to participate in its denuclearization. China has been disrupting this process by compromising this international effort to stablize the region, and took this NK nuclear crisis to its advantage by using the opportunity to acquire access to North Korean natural resources without competition from other countries at much cheaper prices. Hence, China wasn't the "best choice" at all, actually China is far from it considering it is undermining North Korea's industrial potential. But China was the ONLY choice for North Korea, because it was the only one willing to breach the international sanctions and disrupt the NK denuclearization process.

This is what China does typically around the world, breaching international sanctions to exploit natural resources below market prices. What's worse in North Korea is that China is also using the opportunity to acquire strategic assets as well, such as ports on the Sea of Japan, and economic exploitation is far more extensive, probably even worse than Japanese colonization of Korea.

It has been repeated many times by Korean analysts and political leaders, from both left and right, that China's colonization of North Korea is the most serious threat to Korea's future, and that China's military and economic rise is a threat to Korea is a consensus shared by the absolute majority(above 80%) of Koreans. So even if China has a large consumer market to offer(though it's far smaller than the EU or the US market), it's not going to make China any more than a threat to Korea's strategic and economic interests.

Do you have sources that show much of exports were shipped to Korean Factories in China. Somehow i doubt that because Chinese companies and consumers also buy Korean products.

Every Country look for its own interest and China is no exception. Same can also apply to USA, they used 9/11 as an excuse to invade Iraq in order to acquire its oil. Which company has big stake in Iraq oil? Halliburton! Did US got approval from UN before attack Iraq? The US has also been trying to prevent China from unify with Taiwan, and China need some leverage to counter it, unfortunately NK is obviously the choice. Also having those strategic assets in hand allow China to keep NK in check, since invest in NK could be pretty risky.

Guys don't tries to fight over economic relation between SK & PRC. Which way you look at it, both parties benefits each other.

The truth is, SK still invests in China and China investment to SK is really minor. SK is actually economy Donor country where as China isn't.
China's investment to NK is joke compares to other countries investing in much larger economies. I can only think of mining companies from China are currently investing in NK, but I really don't see this as big investment effort from China.

If China wanted to be actual economic donor country, rather than just natural resource buyer or manufacturing base, China should start investing on banking or financial sectors in Asia, to do this China must open up their financial sector and float their currency for trade and bring up their currency level. Thus this will improve living standards of average Chinese, their wages, and more infrastructures like hospitals.

And more over, the reason why China have spent vast amount of hard earn cash onto infrastructures in last decade because China is still developing and thus require to pump up $$$$ into infrastructures otherwise China could not have been today's China.

Btw, countries like India, SK and Japan are another big spender of infrastructures due to concentrated & over population in metropolitans.

Other thing about SE Asia, they actually suffered due to rise of China, Cheap labor market was shifted from SE Asian countries to China, but I guess this is also changing as more investments are now flow into Vietnam, Cambodia and so on.

And thing with China is they don't have to rely on exports as their have huge market, but still have to reply on imports to survive to drive their demand so anything happens on world's commodities prices can effect China's economy which is much same for Korea or Japan.

According to a report by the Korean Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy, the main factor in increasing Korea's exports to China was Korean investments in China. Korean investments and exports were strongly correlated, and Korean companies that set up factories in China mostly imported parts from Korea.

And you pretty much pointed out on your own that China has national interests in direct conflict with Korean national interests, and there are a lot more conflicting national interests between the two countries, such as China colonizing North Korea to exploit its natural resources. Hence why Korea needs to strategically align with other countries whose national interests are also in conflict with China.

banned

although I do not want to get involved in this topic big time ,

The Chinese monetary policy after asian 97 crisis(disalowment of Yuan depreciation)
very usefully helped asian nations recovered indirectly.
especially for the ones who suffered very big like thai,indonesia and south korea not to mention HK.



Many diagnosed that The financial crisis started from the withdraw of capitals in thai and indonesian financial market
(and it also affected to other asian financial markets and korea was unfortunately the one who did not have enough foreign reserve to defend low Won against sudden capital withdraw ),
and remember this is to be seen by many economic experts because of the investors negative view on their competitiveness and credit rating for economic growth ESPECIALLY after Yuan depreciation in 1994.

If China decided to allow yuan depreciation again after asian financial crisis , those damaged nations must have been so difficult to borrow capitals (by posting national bond or corporation bond whatever) due to the higher interet rates from the lenders who can be surely assumed to go for buying yuan instead of THAI BAHT ,KOREAN WON , HKD and Indonesian Ruphi.

And the trade between PRC and ROK -this is just for mutual benefits.



http://www.mediatoday.co.kr/news/articleVi...tml?idxno=39091

http://www.moneyok.co.kr/stock/strategy/re...ategory=report5


I am just wantng to share my knowings here so please dont attack me ,

tats the compensation for PVA fought the korean war.

Analyzing China's investment on NK as colonization is off the topic. I don't think China's investment to NK should be called investment, because it doesn't hardly make it as investment.
It's more like China wanting to import NK's rich minerals for cheap.

SK govt is worry that China could economically dominates NK, but NK's economy is long way from proper economy structure, it urgently needs changes. But this can be resolve once SK gradually unites with NK, because NK's economy is so small, SK's economy will swallow up NK's economy, just that SK needs raise more funds for NK projects & infrastructures.

Currently China's favors NK to stay as it as this benefits them in negotiating with USA, USA doesn't another war in Korean peninsula as it will cripple USA's investment in SK, also it favors China as attractive investment spot as long as Korean peninsula stays war-state.

USA is trying to get NK into their side, once they gets NK to agreed with their demands, I'll bet US will try to incorporate 2 Koreas & Japan into their sphere.

guess Kim is being a good boy after all.

Economically, I doubt there is any other option but just to keep promoting trade and cooperation. That's how economy works.

But, diplomatically, Korea is just too different from China, who is expantionist/communists - nothing else.
I believe Korea is already "Strong-medium-sized country" on whatever measure.
The only obstacle keep Korea from evolving into capable Power House is the sheer size of territory and population.

However, Korea can achieve this, even lesser extent, by unification with N.K., which will make her busy for a while.
Unless China make any foolish attempt on northern peninsular, there is no reason to flame each other.
I sincerely wish China do appreciate Korea being such a peaceful country and make no further mistake.
If not, they will be cursing herself while noticing what "strong-medium-sized country" managed by Koreans can do harm for them (read: Goguryeo-Sui war).

Getting rid of American military presence would be on top of any Korean's list. They are a threat to Korean people.

First of all, China already own some ports in NK for the next 50 year, so even there is unification ( which i doubt it will happen any time soon), the new gov't still have to honor the lease agreemnet. and the loan that China offered to the NK will also be re-pay by the new gov't.
War between China and Korea will be more devastated to Korean people due to the size of the land and Seoul alone have more than 1/3 of the Korean population. China have the manpower as well as modern militray weapons, so it is not wise for Korean to provoke war.
As for Goguryeo-Sui war, Sure they did stop Sui army from conquered the region, but Chinese army keep coming back and in the end, who is the ultimate Winner?

The new government can simply anulll the lease agreement, as well as all the dirty loot China has taken from North Korea. That will definitely benefit the newly unified Korean economy greatly.

And regarding Goguryeo-Sui war, the difference today is that China is no longer the sole superpower, so it won't be able to regain the relative political/military/cultural prowess it used to have in the past.

they arent tat stupid, i am sure they gona drag uncle sam into this.

Come on guys, China can't even finish off Taiwan's KMT force and withdrawing Japanese force, and don't have much experience in wars. China will never going to win any wars with Korea in near future.

Back on old times may be, not any more. Korea now have more allies than before, I am sure our brother countries like Turkey, Israel, Australia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and United State of America are behind us.

Thats when the Korean government nulls the lease and kicks them out.



No they dont have to.



The Chinese didnt offer the North much to gain access to those mines and ports. The future government of the North can simply kick the Chinese out and give them back their payments and take the mines and ports for themselves for no cost.



Assuming this isnt a nuclear war.

If China were to ever declare war on Korea it would lose horribly. The amount of devastation Korea endures would be minuscule compared to what would happen to China. What can China do to Korea? The PLAAF is inferior to the ROK airforce. Chinese planes would be shot down with little effort especially when Korea is on the defensive. The PLAAN is a junk navy not designed to fight in foreign waters. What can Chinese ships do against Koreas sejong class Aegis destroyers? The PLA army is poorly trained and its equipment is inferior to what the ROK army uses. Korean tanks outgun and outrange Chinese tanks. Korean soldiers are better trained and will also be better motivated. Since this is a defensive war Korea would have the advantage thanks to fortified defensive positions. Furthermore China doesnt have the logistics to supply and mobilize a several million man army into the Korean peninsula. China could fire a couple of missiles at Korea but they would probably be shot down before they do any damage or go off course due to the sad state of Chinese missile technology(which can be jammed). The missiles that do manage to hit something probably wont do much if anything as long as it isnt nuclear.

And assuming that China somehow decides to still declare war on Korea. Thats when then the international community sanctions and blockades China while Korea, US and their allies invade China and overthrows the CCP. Dont use the Korean war as an example of Chinese military prowess. The US wasnt serious on declaring a full out invasion of China due to possible Soviet intervention. Numerical advantage is becoming increasingly irrelevant in modern warfare.

Just firebomb Chinese farmlands and watch the entire country starve. Or send in stealth bombers, ballistic missiles to destroy Chinese factories and watch Chinas military capacity diminish to zero. A million man wave by the CCP wouldnt work in todays modern wars. A single MOAB is capable of leveling an area the size of 6 or more football fields. A single football field can house tens of thousands of people. If China were to send a 3 million man army they would be easily detected and bombed by planes and strafed by attack helicopters before they can even reach their destination.

China declaring war on Korea would be suicide.



Korea was the ultimate winner. Goguryeo was beaten by a Shilla-Tang alliance. Not by the Tang alone. Tang wasnt strong enough to beat Goguryeo by themselves. After Goguryeos fall the Tang army backs tabbed Shilla and attacked them as well. Shilla fought the Tang and decisively beat them. The Tang were then driven out of the peninsula and thats why Korea exists today. Meanwhile in the North a Goguryeo general by the name of Daejoyeong defeated the Tang and created another Korean kingdom by the name of Balhae. So basically the inhabitants of the Korean peninsula were the ultimate winner in that whole Tang affair.

China would have a much harder time today then in the past. Nevertheless a war is what Korea hopes to avoid although im not so sure with China.

What port(s) does this guy is referring to? I have never heard of Chinese navy acessing NK's ports. Most of NK ports are closed not even Chinese navy can access it. Do most Chinese people believe their country can access NK's ports & bases? Seriously when do this people will learn that even NK won't give up everything.

I have never heard or seen NK agreed on China accessing their ports

Try reading the news once in a while, so you won't be kept in the dark next time China pursues colonization of North Korea or some other desperate, internationally isolated state. The port we're talking about here is the Najin Port on the coast of East Sea(Sea of Japan) which North Korea sold off to China when it was desperate for cash due to the sanctions imposed on it during the nuclear crisis. During this time, China also gained access to fishing grounds on parts of East Sea from North Korea, and now there are Chinese fishing boats there hauling away North Korean marine resources when the North Koreans are suffering from food shortages.

Najin port is miles way from China and China still don't have direct access to that port. Even China setup base in there, their base will be little duckling against to heavy build up of SK & Japan's naval bases.

Seriously when do people will grow up with this crap, do you think North Koreas are stupid?

So what it will over once SK swallow up NK soon. NK regime is so weak, it will be crumble soon

Btw, that was smart move by NK regime to allow China to access east sea, isn't east sea already crowed place for Russian, US, Japan, NK & SK. Seriously what would Chinese navy do even they base in east sea? watch out for Japanese & US naval forces?

Do you think Chinese navy is strong enough to attack Japan & USA?

Didn't you read Japanese & US naval expert eports on China's navy?

First China will soon have the direct access to Najin port, 67-kilometer highway linking Rajin to Hunchun (China) is currently under counstruction. The port is use for commercial purpose, not for naval base, so please read some news before start posting nonsense.

Nk is not easy to swallow, and China and Russia will make sure it never collapse, i heard Kim Jong's second son is going to take the Throne.


No country want to fight China, because war could be devastate for both, especially with country that has nuclear weapon.

Holy cow, you sound like you actually supporting communist and wanting South Korea to collapse instead of NK.
Existance of South Korea is only reason for NE Asia's power balance, with out SK, both China & Japan would at war right now.

Seriously, NK regime should be collapse and liberate all poor North Koreans from evil dictator.

Btw, are you live in China or North korea?

south korea is making rapid development in rail network between the north and south. russia, china, japan, EU and US governments claimed that they want to see a unified korea.

what about Russia?

The existance of NK is also for the power balance in the region. You have US back up Taiwan, thus China need to find suitable alternatives to counter. and NK is obviously the choice.


Most important, China and Russia will never allow US troop in their border. And China is also afraid that once the regime collapses, there will be hundreds and thousands refugees flow into China, that is the last thing China want to see. So keep NK regime alive is the right thing to do for China interest.

Also there are economic reforms in NK, and the gov't have created several special economic zones to attract investment, particularly from China and SK, economic condition will gradually improve for NK people as the gov't try to open its door to the world. it takes time.