http://www.dfat.gov.au/GEO/fs/Japanese.pdf


Recent economic indicators: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(a) 2008(b)
GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 4,234.9 4,608.1 4,560.7 4,377.1 4,383.8 4,866.9
GDP PPP (US$bn) ©: 3,474.5 3,666.3 3,872.8 4,091.9 4,289.8 4,438.7
GDP per capita (US$): 33,180 36,076 35,699 34,264 34,312 38,095
GDP per capita PPP (US$) ©: 27,222 28,703 30,315 32,032 33,577 34,743
Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 1.4 2.7 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.4
Current account balance (US$m): 136,238 172,070 165,690 170,437 212,815 193,322
Current account balance (% GDP): 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.9 4.0
Goods & services exports (% GDP): 12.4 13.8 14.9 16.7 17.7 17.6
Inflation (% change YOY): -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6

Congrats to Japan! Of course there will be crickets in this thread, as the hatred and jealousy of Japanese is pretty thick around here in AF.

Don't let some haters in here bother you.

All congratulations to Japan.

OMG that's unthinkable. Japan is really an economic powerhouse.

I am not surprised. Japanese people do more and talk less.

Good for, Japan I guess.

Japan's only a 1,5% growth rate.

Whatever, congrats and keep ya head up even when China surpasses you.

Define soon.

Japan's growth is about 2% annual. It will take them 9 to 10 yrs to reach 5 trillion.

Socal, you are well known for blowing hot air , lol.

Sir, have you taken a look at the factsheet? I am supported with evidence.

Look at those numbers from you, it doesn't make sense.

Recent economic indicators: 2007(a) 2008(b)
GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 4,383.8 4,866.9

(4.866-4.383)/4.383=11% That's real GDP growth of 11% from 2007 to 2008.
No way, Japan will have 11% growth in 2008. This yr the world is in recession. especially those devloped country.
therefore, whoever calculate and project those 2008 numbers doesn't make sense.

Recent economic indicators: 2004 2005 2006
GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 4,608.1 4,560.7 4,377.1


From 2004 the GDP is going backward, negative growth for 3 yrs.

Ok, EZ, believe it or not is up to you.

The Japanese economy stagnated for a long time during the 90s and early 00s. It only showed upturn during the last few years but theres no doubt going to be a global recession and Japan will suffer. We migh even see a mid 90s style contraction.

The Japanese's economy is not that impressive especially considering the fact their exchange rate against USD has been increased 400% during 1970-1980, while China's RMB has not re-valued that much (only re-valued 25%).

Also, even talking about GDP's based on exchange-rate:

This year China' GDP will be around 4.4 trillion, next year will be around 5.5 trillion USD.

are you saying that adjusted for PPP, China's GDP will grow by 25%? Are you sure?

25% is the number Yuan has been rosen against USD.

And the nominal growth rate can easily surpass 25% as well:

For instance, in 2008: GDP growth rate is likely to be 10.5%, Inflation rate: ~7%, Exchange-rate re-value rate: likely to be ~7% (against USD).

Then the overall growth will be ~27%.

How does that work then? Explain this to me.

Congratulations to all Japanese people.

that's like 5 millions of million... literally

Not PPP, all I talked is exchange-rate based GDP, just in terms of USD, without adjusting for inflation, so you get : 1.105*1.07*1.07->27% growth rate in terms of USD.

For example, in 2006, China's GDP is 2.69 Trillion USD, 2007, China's GDP is 3.44 Trillion USD, that's 28% growth rate.

And by the end of 2008, China's GDP will be 4.4 Trillion USD, that's 27% growth rate.

Therefore in either 2008 or 2009, China will surpass Japan and become the 2nd largest economy.

The more interesting question is when we can surpass the U.S, by 2008 China's GDP will be 1/3 of the U.S, I think China is likely to surpass the U.S in 2015-2020, mainly thanks to the high growth rate and the dynamic of exchange rate (which is quite reasonable, since in 2003 China's GDP is 1/3 of Japan's GDP, and will surpass it in 2008 or 2009).

It is not mircale, because developing countries tend to have weaker currency due to they don't have much power in international trading (reflected by weaker exchange rate), as your economoy keep claiming the ladder, so do your currency, that's why Japan today has a 4+ trllion GDP instead of a 1 trillion one.

It's nonsense. The USD has fallen precipitously over the last few years. You don't measure growth that way. Otherwise you could say that the Chinese GDP rose even faster if you compared it to Zimbabwean currency. Woah- China's GDP rose by 11,000%. Sweet. They can buy the Moon now.

Anyway, it's good to see that Japan is back. It's probably not a common belief here, but I think that it is better for everyone if every other nations's economy is strong. I'd rather live in a wealthy world than a poor one.

Basically thats the way japan measure their own GDP, just like I said before, their GDP became 4 times larger in a single day just because of the exchange rate.

Actually, due to the devaluation of our currency, during 1980s, China's GDP measured in RMB is grow at 10% per year, measued by USD, is grow at 0% per year.

So basically if you want to talk about anything remote to GDP, you have to consider the dynamic of exchange rate.

There are a number of ways to measure GDP. I think you are talking about GDP measurement based on a purchasing power parity metric. This is probably the most accepted manner of measuring GDP, but it's important to understand that it is just a model. PPP measurements are generally made based on an accepted standard currency, usually the US dollar. This has worked well in the past because the dollar has traditionally been a strong and stable currency. Over the last couple years the US dollar has been neither stable nor strong. Economists continue to measure PPP in dollars because to do otherwise would mess up the long term record, which must use a single metric.

The issue here is that it's a mistake to think that the PPP metric tells you much about an economy in this case. You simply must adjust for the slide of the dollar if you want to make meaningful statements about the strength of an economy based on GDP, if that GDP is measured against the USD. This ought to be obvious- the Japanese economy does not become magically more productive every time the dollar shifts, though it does become more able to buy US products (and less able to sell products to the US).

Sigh, how many times do I need to repeat: What I have mentioned is the GDP measured base on pure exchange rate method, i.e. calculated the GDP base on RMB, transfer that value to USD based on market exchange rate.

No, I am not talking about PPP based GDP, since in terms of PPP, we have surpassed the Japan's GDP years ago.

Don't sigh... But I'd like you to explain to me the difference between "pure exchange rate" and PPP before we go further. PPP is often referred to as the "real exchange rate" after all, and I am not sure how what you refer ro differs from PPP metrics. It seems clear to me that you aren't talking about currency exchange metrics, though if I'm wrong you can certainly correct me. Since those are the two commonly accepted metrics for national production, you'll have to forgive me if I assume you are using one of them.

Well, maybe thats some lost in translation

But in our country, we don't call the PPP "exhange rate" as exchange rate, since thats not exchange rate, no one in the real market will change your RMB and USD based on that rate, that "exchange rate" is only useful in the academic world when you want to compare the internal living standards between different countries, etc.

Instead of exchange rate, we call PPP based transfer rate as " purchasing power rate".

When I say "exchange rate", I mean the real-world, market exchange rate, i.e. the one listed in your bank, the exchange rate you can buy RMB with your USD cash in your banks.

It that clear enough for you?

what does that mean?im not into economy at all