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EazyMoney
in my pov, by 2020, China should attain that type of status. It's economy should surpass the $10 trillion mark, bigger than all the rest of asian economies combined. Its dometic market will be big enough to be immune to any type of trade wars, boycotts with the west. on the flipside, it can use its economic muscle to punish individual nation that goes against it, like what its doing now to france. France had to "beg" for forgiveness relate to the dalai issue.

militarily, it will feature 3 or 4 long projection carrier strike force groups. It will be ocean going force just like the USN.
zhengchenggong
Agreed. 2020 should be the year that China can assume superpower status. Its national power will be close to the US, a peer rival.

I think by 2030, China would clearly surpass the US and be the world's major superpower.

By 2050, China will be the world's only superpower, its economy will be larger than all of the West combined. I hope I see that day.
mkfk1
Economically, when the average annual income reach the modern equivalent of 10k USD per year.

Militarily, when PLA have 3-5 carriers battle groups, with up to date missiles, jets, subs, and other weapons.

Both should be achieve by 2025-2030. I like to have lower expectations to avoid disappointment.

Socially, and politically.... thats another story. But money and weapons are more important.
MyNameIsVu
What is "superpower" status? It is just a term coined by the West and theirs political elitive system. Good luck learning from them.
EazyMoney
It's debatable when & if China's economy can surpass US economy. But the for the next 10 yrs, if their economy can double up, that will be the key. After that it can be home free, decidedly pulling away by big margin from second rated powers such as Japan, Germany, France..and getting close enough to US's. Right now, China kind of bundled up among those second rated powers.


Militarily, during the cold war, Soviet's weapons are clearly weren't as good as the US but they are still serious threat to US therefore no much happened between the two. I think China can reach that kind of state weaponwise, mutlfaced..

As for Taiwan, I have absolutely nothing to worry about it. By that time, Taiwan's It will have little or no margin of tech advancement over China's. It will cling dearly to China like a piece of gum for its economic wellbeing. You can already see that type of trend happening now in this economic crisis.



MyNameIsVu
QUOTE(EazyMoney @ May 10 2009, 05:54 PM) [snapback]4227162[/snapback]
It's debatable when & if China's economy can surpass US economy. But the for the next 10 yrs, if their economy can double up, that will be the key. After that it can be home free, decidedly pulling away by big margin from second rated powers such as Japan, Germany, France..and getting close enough to US's. Right now, China kind of bundled up among those second rated powers.
Militarily, during the cold war, Soviet's weapons are clearly weren't as good as the US but they are still serious threat to US therefore no much happened between the two. I think China can reach that kind of state weaponwise, mutlfaced..

As for Taiwan, I have absolutely nothing to worry about it. By that time, Taiwan's It will have little or no margin of tech advancement over China's. It will cling dearly to China like a piece of gum for its economic wellbeing. You can already see that type of trend happening now in this economic crisis.


How is the economy beings measured. It is better to measure the recycling frequency, quality of life, custom made products,... I thinks you're confuse.

The only weapon of major thread that I saw here is Leatha"weapon" embarassedlaugh.gif ,, but this fail to "kiill." Talktohand.gif Oh, the evilness of evilness.
EazyMoney
QUOTE(MyNameIsVu @ May 10 2009, 08:05 PM) [snapback]4227180[/snapback]
How is the economy beings measured. It is better to measure the recycling frequency, quality of life, custom made products,... I thinks you're confuse.

The only weapon of major thread that I saw here is Leatha"weapon" embarassedlaugh.gif ,, but this fail to "kiill." Talktohand.gif Oh, the evilness of evilness.


How's measured? I measured relative to biggest economy of the world, US currently with total 14 trillion GDP. When you reach certain size, then it would be self suffcient and relatively independent.

would you call singapore as world power since it has pretty high quality of life? You probably would because it has pretty high per capita GPD.

but its overall economy is too small and overly depend on outside for its survival. so Not in my book.
InitialDJay
i oppose the idea of CHINA being a world police.
kaixin
Chinese people are lazy and peaceful people ,right?
Suijen
3-4 Carriers? Where'd you come up with that?
newties21
In 50 years time.

In 100 years time, almost close gap with USA. Already good enough.

2020 is too short, that is just 10years+ from now.

10 years + cannot do much.

A lot of things need to change first, educational level, technological level, economy climbing up the value chain (not just low level manufacturing), improvement in legal environment, etc, these are all deep social change which need time and need several generations.

The most important thing is to be patient and to remove obstacles until after 50 years+
Mid-Night_Sun
if US is any indication of what is expected, never i hope......

when its bad, US does w/e it wants and people get mad. when its good, people look to US to "lead" them. too much involvement with other countries imo.
Suijen
China will overtake the US by 2020 economically assuming current growth rates, which is quite unreasonable.
Hafiz
QUOTE(InitialDJay @ May 11 2009, 12:33 AM) [snapback]4227440[/snapback]
i oppose the idea of CHINA being a world police.


Yup.

China should follow this slogan :

國家自掃門前門雪
EazyMoney
QUOTE(Suijen @ May 11 2009, 03:00 AM) [snapback]4227577[/snapback]
China will overtake the US by 2020 economically assuming current growth rates, which is quite unreasonable.


reaches over $10 trillion mark by current equivalent. nowhere I mention overtake US by 2020.
Avitech
QUOTE(newties21 @ May 11 2009, 03:19 AM) [snapback]4227559[/snapback]
In 50 years time.

In 100 years time, almost close gap with USA. Already good enough.

2020 is too short, that is just 10years+ from now.

10 years + cannot do much.

A lot of things need to change first, educational level, technological level, economy climbing up the value chain (not just low level manufacturing), improvement in legal environment, etc, these are all deep social change which need time and need several generations.

The most important thing is to be patient and to remove obstacles until after 50 years+


Germany has a big economy even though it relies on medium-end products as indicated by technological sophistication measures.
redcoin
China will become the next great country and superpower of the 21st century, and we in the western world are already starting to acknowledge this. I don't think people should fear this because China seems to have more of a trading culture as opposed to an invading/colonist culture. I mean without the Chinese buying our minerals and resources, us Australians would probably be just another Africa embarassedlaugh.gif

I see China economically overpowering the USA within the next 50 years, the USA is in too much trouble and debt to continue on policing the world. There is a very good chance that their currency will crash within the next 10 years due to hyperinflation.
Manders
Unless this recession lasts for another 20 years, China will not replace the U.S. as a superpower. And remember, the competition is fierce (India, EU, Brazil, Russia, etc)
mndeg
You said the competition is fierce and then you list THOSE countries/organizations?
moo
never if china keeps copying off other countries. at best they can only have be an imitation of a superpower.
generasian
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MeteorXY
I would say when the population of China decrease to 0.8 billion, and CCP split into two parties, or another party formed that can compete with CCP.
China also should advance the heavy industry, such as the Car industry, which at least should have the size of Japan.

And the most important one, to unify Taiwan.
MeteorXY
QUOTE (generasian @ Jul 3 2009, 11:29 AM) *
I really want China to reach a superpower status, but I think it has it downsides. We get alot of immigration and thats a bad thing I think. I dont wanna see africans walk around our streets. I just wanna puke when I think about it. If africans migrate to our country we will see alot more rape, robbery etc. Just look at Africa and other black countries. They are very stupid and we would not gain anything if we took them in.


Racist....though I don't like Blacks either....
metalhead
Not to be racist or anything, but it would be ideal for China to retain it's level of homogeneity to keep the ethnic/ racial conflict to a minimum. Don't want to live in a violent country.
Red Fox Ace
China could be a dominant superpower that would make the USA pale by comparison.



However, the CPP is too pragmatic and doesn't seem to have such aspirations. So it may not be a matter of potential, but of will.
ccL1
QUOTE (Red Fox Ace @ Jul 4 2009, 10:11 AM) *
China could be a dominant superpower that would make the USA pale by comparison.



However, the CPP is too pragmatic and doesn't seem to have such aspirations. So it may not be a matter of potential, but of will.


Actually, I think the CCP does have aspirations and the vision to do it. I just don't think China, as a whole, have the institutions to get it done.

People say that, "oh, if China doesn't become a democracy, it's screwed". I somewhat disagree, as I've studied graduate-level political economy enough to know that there have been many instances where an autocracy has been "better" than a democracy. There is no evidence that a democracy is absolutely better than any other form of government.

One glaring counter-example to the "democracy = best" argument is the term limits for the executive branch, especially for places like America. With 4 year terms, you don't have much wiggle room to do anything for the long term future of the country. You think only in terms of election to election. You only really care about your own term and maximizing the return on only your own term, and your policies reflect that. There have been occasional exceptions, like Bill Clinton, who allowed Bush to inherit a great economic situation (high tax revenue, huge budget surplus). Yet Bush squandered that and passed on a horrible legacy to Barack Obama, who will most likely pass on an equally bad - if not worse - situation to the next President.

At least with China's monopoly power through the CCP, it can afford short term screw ups, because it has loftier visions for the long term. It must, because the government fears the people. They do have aspirations to make the country better, but the lack of institutions (especially political and social) on their part will hurt them.

We'll see though.

I personally think China is a superpower already, especially when you have an American Treasury Secretary flying to China to beg the Chinese government to continue to buy treasury bills.

China will be the sole superpower in 20 to 30 years, as it will have the richest country aggregately, the most advanced technology, and hopefully more freedoms for the people.
Red Fox Ace
QUOTE (ccL1 @ Jul 4 2009, 12:16 PM) *
I personally think China is a superpower already, especially when you have an American Treasury Secretary flying to China to beg the Chinese government to continue to buy treasury bills.



Different kinds of superpower, perhaps. USA = "Hard" Superpower of might and power. China = "Soft" Superpower of influence and sway.



Not necessarily that one is better or superior than the other, but just different kinds.



As for democracy, yes - I do not expect good things out of a democratic China.



Ideally, China would remain a dictatorship or something - albeit with more freedom and human rights.
ccL1
QUOTE (Red Fox Ace @ Jul 4 2009, 11:44 AM) *
Ideally, China would remain a dictatorship or something - albeit with more freedom and human rights.


Agreed.

But I wonder how the international community will view that and how they will treat China?

We'll see though.
mkfk1
QUOTE
I really want China to reach a superpower status, but I think it has it downsides. We get alot of immigration and thats a bad thing I think. I dont wanna see africans walk around our streets. I just wanna puke when I think about it. If africans migrate to our country we will see alot more rape, robbery etc. Just look at Africa and other black countries. They are very stupid and we would not gain anything if we took them in.


In case you havent notice, China has some of the toughest immigration policy in the world.

Even HK has harsh laws that we have no problem deporting mass viet refugees.
Mid-Night_Sun
if China wants to be a shadow super power, it is much better. those in the spotlight catch the heat.
WarEngineer
it's hard to say how china is going to become.
but this anarchy thing is good and bad at the same time.

efficient but cruel, powerful but power sometimes is being misused.
growing, but not without mistakes.

IndianBoyz
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Mid-Night_Sun
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 12:13 PM) *
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BurdenOfAges
QUOTE (generasian @ Jul 3 2009, 12:29 PM) *
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Don't generalize. There are many hard-working, productive Africans who can contribute greatly to China and its economy. A good immigration policy is one that lets in the good and keeps out the bad. The trick is to prevent the formation of ethnic ghettos, which understandably no country wants (and this includes many Chinatowns, btw). Generally, you want people who don't feel like they're outsiders in China - ie people who genuinely want to be there and be a part of it, and who'll make an effort to integrate aside from just doing business. Having well-articulated notions of work residency, life-time residency, and citizenship helps in this matter - people shouldn't feel compelled to become permanent citizens just to take part in China's economy, and at the same time, those who do become permanent citizens should be prepared to merge themselves fully into Chinese society, as opposed to self-segregate in ethnic communities.

Just because the West has made mistakes in its immigration policy, doesn't mean immigration is negative overall. Recall that some of the greatest periods of Chinese prosperity (ie the Tang Dynasty) were also periods of cosmopolitanism, during which people from many parts of the world went to live and do business in China.
sunt
There is now currently a whole bunch of Africans living in the city of Guangzhou today. Almost as many as there are blacks in America. Many of them have Chinese girlfriends too. There are many middle easterns too in China. I was staying in a hotel in Guangzhou in March, There were many Turkish restaurants there to cater to Turkish and middle easterners.
BurdenOfAges
QUOTE (sunt @ Aug 2 2009, 12:52 PM) *
There is now currently a whole bunch of Africans living in the city of Guangzhou today. Almost as many as there are blacks in America. Many of them have Chinese girlfriends too. There are many middle easterns too in China. I was staying in a hotel in Guangzhou in March, There were many Turkish restaurants there to cater to Turkish and middle easterners.


What the presence of such cosmopolitan features means, generally, is that your country is becoming something, such that other people are willing to relocate there in order to be part of the "Next Big Thing." This is a good sign, not a bad one. It only becomes a negative when it is handled incorrectly, such as by taking a passive approach to inter-ethnic issues in light of the xenophobia latent in every society. If China is to be a superpower, then it needs to act like one and teach its people how to navigate a multi-ethnic world.
Mid-Night_Sun
QUOTE (sunt @ Aug 2 2009, 01:52 PM) *
There is now currently a whole bunch of Africans living in the city of Guangzhou today. Almost as many as there are blacks in America. Many of them have Chinese girlfriends too. There are many middle easterns too in China. I was staying in a hotel in Guangzhou in March, There were many Turkish restaurants there to cater to Turkish and middle easterners.

they are not very integrated at all embarassedlaugh.gif

"But just like Clem, the lives of many Africans never extends out of the 20 kilometer “Chocolate City”. Just about all African visitors can’t name a single tourist spot in Guangzhou, and can’t name many Chinese friends."

"If all of the Africans in Guangzhou evapored overnight, they would leave almost no mark in “Chocolate City” or Guangzhou."

"As if he forgot he denied he had chased Chinese girls before, he puts on an exaggerated expression for the reporter, “Luckily, I’ve never successfully dated a Chinese girl!”

“Of course they can’t get a Chinese girl.” 23 year old Ms. Lee is both angry and amused as she talks about this topic. She feels “being normal friends with them is okay, but dating is too strange”. Besides, friends will mock you. From her point of view, many young Africans flirt with girls out of boredom, as a form of entertainment. As soon as they’re refused, they turn around and start expressing their love to someone else."

"When Cote was walking around the mall, he repeatedly asked the reporter, “How many boyfriends do you have?” “Just one? Why not get a few more?” Before separating, he graciously invited in a gentlemanly manner, “Will you have dinner with me? Come to where I live, I’ll make the best African food for you.” After being denied, he could only spread his hands, “Why are Chinese girls so hard to date?”

After watching a Chinese TV series, Williams had some insight into the reason for his failure in love, “Maybe Chinese are shy, and prefer to take it slowly.” But his guess might also be a case of wishful thinking. Wang Jia, a girl working in the same mall, once screamed at a suitor who refused to take no for an answer: “Stay away from me, even if you wait 100 years, I won’t be your girlfriend!”

http://blog.foolsmountain.com/2008/06/14/c...reams-in-china/
IndianBoyz
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Police
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 11:13 AM) *
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delgrodel
Why do Indians always point out that Chinese people can't speak English as if the ability to speak English is the greatest virtue bestowed upon mankind by their former British masters. Is that the only thing you people have to be proud of? As for the yellow slanted-eyed comment, how would you like it if I called you a cow-worshiping brown road turd? What's that? That's a common Western stereotype? Maybe you'd rather be White. If that's the case, then more power to you. But leave the rest of us slanted-eyed bastards alone. We're proud of who we are.
IndianBoyz
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IndianBoyz
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delgrodel
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 04:01 PM) *
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antimatter
China started to reform 1980s. It wasted alot of time during the cultural revolution.
India got a head start through help from the western countries during 70s. and still managed fall behind China. what's the reason?

The real question is not how India is going to catch up with CHina but rather why did India fall behind China even thought it has a head start.
Mid-Night_Sun
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 05:01 PM) *
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IndianBoyz
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delgrodel
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IndianBoyz
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Mid-Night_Sun
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 05:16 PM) *
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Police
QUOTE (IndianBoyz @ Aug 2 2009, 03:58 PM) *
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