President Ma will lose 2012 elections: CLSA


http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_conten...Politics_TAIWAN

Taiwan News, Staff Writer
Page 2
2010-03-25 12:00 AM
President Ma Ying-jeou will lose the 2012 presidential elections because he has completely lost public confidence, newspapers quoted analysts at financial group CLSA as saying yesterday.

The Hong Kong-based CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets brokerage and investment company is an independent subgroup of French bank Credit Agricole.

The Ma administration's handling of a wide range of issues, from last August's Typhoon Morakot disaster to the opening to imports of bone-in beef from the United States, has met with strong public dissatisfaction, senior analyst Bruce Warden said in a report titled "The KMT as its own worst enemy."

The government's habits of provoking "self-inflicted wounds" would cause the ruling Kuomintang to lose the 2012 elections, the Chinese-language Liberty Times daily quoted the report as saying.

The failure of the central government to respond quickly and adequately to local needs and public opinion had stayed in the minds of voters, especially following Typhoon Morakot, Warden was quoted as saying.

In the case of the U.S. beef imports, KMT lawmakers immediately stopped their support for the government and took their own stance in opposition to Ma's policies, according to the report.

The latest faux-pas by the government was to refuse a referendum about the plans for an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China. The refusal of the plebiscite demanded by the opposition gave the impression that the KMT was unable to reflect public opinion, Warden wrote. The government's attitude was giving the opposition Democratic Progressive Party an opportunity to close in on Ma, endangering his eventual bid for a second term, the report said.

Over the past few months, the KMT performed poorly in a series of elections, including county and city elections and by-elections for legislative seats. At the end of the year, it will be facing a major challenge in mayoral elections for five of Taiwan's most populated areas.

CLSA has a history of predicting political events and election outcomes, the Liberty Times said. In 2003, it accurately predicted that President Chen Shui-bian would win re-election the following year despite frequent opinion polls to the contrary.

Lusterless Ma headed for one-term presidency


http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials...3/25/2003468831

By Lu I-ming 呂一銘

Thursday, Mar 25, 2010, Page 8

President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) chances of getting re-elected in 2012 are down to 36.8 percent, according to a forecast from the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University. Poll after poll shows dissatisfaction with Ma.

No wonder China’s leaders have been getting worried and made a series of concessions in connection with the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) talks earlier this year.

Writing for the Brookings Institution, Shelley Rigger suggests that although China and Taiwan are working together to set up a framework for cross-strait exchange, this process is constrained by Taiwan’s internal politics. The Ma administration’s weakness on the domestic front limits the speed and content of cross-strait rapprochement. One of the reasons people have lost confidence in the Ma government is that its policies are not transparent. The government is often suspected of sacrificing Taiwan’s sovereignty for the sake of reaching agreements with Beijing. If, one day, China’s leaders determine that Ma cannot deliver what Beijing wants, then it could be “game over” for his weak approach to cross-strait rapprochement, Rigger suggests.

The Cabinet has been hobbled by a series of blows related to controversies over the proposed health insurance premium hike, the death penalty and other issues. While former justice minister Wang Ching-feng (王清峰) resigned over the capital punishment issue, Department of Health Minister Yaung Chih-liang (楊志良) had to be cajoled into withdrawing his resignation over the health insurance impasse. Meanwhile, National Youth Commission Minister Wang Yu-ting (王昱婷) faces accusations of failing to draw the line between her public and private affairs.

The government has either reneged on its much-vaunted promises of reform or let them evaporate. Moves to have military personnel and teachers pay income tax, for example, came to an abrupt halt after the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) traditional supporters in the military threatened to stop supporting the party. The Ministry of Civil Service has proposed amendments to the Civil Servants Evaluation Act (公務人員考績法) stipulating that at least 3 percent of staff at government agencies must be given a low “C” grade in their year-end evaluations, but the government has quietly backpedaled on the proposal following a fierce backlash from civil servants. The Cabinet is also wavering on cooling the runaway real estate market.

In recent days, even a number of KMT-aligned legislators have questioned the veracity of the unemployment rate as declared by the government, saying that total unemployment stands at 11 percent if those in temporary jobs are included in the figure. The protesting lawmakers say Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) could resign twice over and it still wouldn’t be enough. All these cases of public hardship and dissatisfaction cannot be resolved through slogans and public information pamphlets.

Ma’s halo having lost its luster renders his chances of re-election questionable. The countdown to crisis has already begun for him. As Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) wrote recently: “Politics is not like making a film, where you can shout ‘cut’ and shoot the scene again any time something goes wrong.”

If the government persists in its lack of transparency and fails to seek a public consensus on major controversial issues like the proposed ECFA, then the cross-strait policy it holds so dearly will be brought down along with its proponents, leaving nothing but regrets for the pan-blues in 2012.

A BAD NEWS!!!

I believe Red Fox Ace already waiting my comment about this articles.

KMT needs a better candidate for them. Though I do think that Ma is too soft on just about everything. The KMT needs a strong leader.

To be honest, any candidate who supports the status quo (not independence) would probably win in my opinion.

Op, You've posted like 100 articles with basically the same content. I think everyone gets the point. Maybe you should stop post padding now?

OP must be a DPP supporter.

CLSA is the most prestigious bankers conference organization in Asia....

HAHA.

You are ignoring the real facts.
Ma and the kmt are outsiders in Taiwan. Kmt never saw themselves as Taiwanese in the 50 years they illegally occupied Taiwan. Using money to buy votes, using smear campaigns during elections, and lies about the economic china ties will not work for the kmt. Ma's true colors were shown when he disregarded 500 Taiwanese who died during the last hurricane. He was swimming and joining a wedding party when people were dying. Ma sold out Taiwan when he imported US beef. And he refuses to disclose the secret economic meeting of the ECFA and refuses to present it to the public.
That is why DPP have been winning elections left and right.
Kmt is on it way out.

You are funny. Do you think CCP is an outisider in Guangdong too?

It's because Taiwan media sponsored by CIA brainwashing Chinese in Taiwan with news that sound like this:

Dirt and filthy sands from China spoiled Kaoshiung air.

hugham, the bitter little troll. I got news for you.
Taiwan don't owe you a damn thing.
You are a no-body to Tawian.
You and your kmt parasites are free to move out of Taiwan anytime you like.
You guys were the ones who got kicked out of china like the dirt and filthy sands desperately flying out of China.
Go back where you came from you blood suckers.

DLai = Vinnie = Emac = VinceLee!



How many different troll usernames have you used by now? You'd figure that by now you'd be smart enough to not repeat the same writing style again and again!

fu-king troll, please go shoot your self.