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Full Version: Japan will lose over 30 million in 40 years from 2010 to 2050.
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SoCal
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/03/04/toyota-...d-of-japan.html



"This all has dire economic effects. Low birth rates and out-migration patterns mean the country's population is predicted to fall from 127 million to 95 million by 2050, creating unparalleled demographic pressures. A shrinking, bargain-hunting, risk-averse population translates into a deflationary spiral, low wage growth, and decreased tax revenues. Japan's debt is now more than twice GDP, by far the highest rate of any industrialized nation. In a March piece entitled "Japan's Slow-Motion Crisis," Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, wrote that Japan was "a poster child for economic stagnation," noting its "legendary" inefficiencies in agriculture, retail, and government. His conclusion: Japan's fiscal situation grows more alarming by the day. The stock market stands at a quarter of its 1989 high, and now Toyota's stock has fallen 20 percent since the recalls began."


AsiaticGlory
Japan should give tax breaks to people who make more children. I have also heard they are developing robots to end the labor shortage problems. If they were more open-minded about immigration, I wouldn't mind relocating there. A developed Asian country sounds damn good.
tSekaTheKhan
Considering the tendency of the Japanese consumers to save, I think Japan will handle the pressure better than Europe.

Titanium
The only way to solve this problem is to allow immigration, not sure the Japanese government is okay with this idea though.
tSekaTheKhan
QUOTE (Titanium @ Jul 23 2011, 04:05 AM) *
The only way to solve this problem is to allow immigration, not sure the Japanese government is okay with this idea though.


This is a good idea because it will relieve the burden of supporting retired workers and bring new skills to the Japanese work force, but @ the same time one has to think that in the ultra-long term this population reduction will be a good thing considering Japan's small amounts of land.
bear11
No actually Japan will lose 20 million people by 2050, according to the UN and US census estimates.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

http://www.census.gov/population/internati...tionGateway.php

Russia lost 8 million people in the last 20 years and they are still doing fine.

The united States are allowing mass immigration from Mexico, but those immigrants are not converging in education with white people, the US is going to have much bigger problems because their young population will be mostly welfare recipients. embarassedlaugh.gif
tSekaTheKhan
QUOTE (bear11 @ Jul 23 2011, 07:50 AM) *
No actually Japan will lose 20 million people by 2050, according to the UN and US census estimates.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

http://www.census.gov/population/internati...tionGateway.php

Russia lost 8 million people in the last 20 years and they are doing fine.



No, Russia is not doing fine.

Although the economy is growing (minus the 2008 8% drop in GDP), standards of living aren't improving as fast because of the insufficient work force.

The burden of supporting the elderly also dilutes the earnings of the younger generations.

The Russian government would love to attract immigrants, but all the Central Asian workers are fleeing to Moscow/St. Petersburg and the labour isn't dispersed properly.
bear11
QUOTE (tSekaTheKhan @ Jul 23 2011, 07:53 AM) *
No, Russia is not doing fine.

Although the economy is growing (minus the 2008 8% drop in GDP), standards of living aren't improving as fast because of the insufficient work force.

The burden of supporting the elderly also dilutes the earnings of the younger generations.

The Russian government would love to attract immigrants, but all the Central Asian workers are fleeing to Moscow/St. Petersburg and the labour isn't dispersed properly.

nonsense, Russians don't want any immigration, they are already at only 79% of Russian population.

The US is to have much bigger problems because they are going to have a large uneducated young population in the future that will require huge welfare benefits.
Forummember

I think Japan will just do fine. If you have 0% economic grow with a declining population, that still means that the people are getting richer. Because the same amount of wealth is shared by less people.

And a declining population isnt a bad thing for a crowed country like Japan. More space for next generations.

But immigration will only cause trouble. Because with a declining original population, the immigrantes will take over after a couple of generations.
tSekaTheKhan
QUOTE (bear11 @ Jul 23 2011, 07:59 AM) *
nonsense, Russians don't want any immigration, they are already at only 79% of Russian population.

The US is to have much bigger problems because they are going to have a large uneducated young population in the future that will require huge welfare benefits.


...uhh what?

You do realize that most of that 21% non-Ruskii(or Russian as you offensively identify them) are indigenous to Russia?

me being one of them?

Kalmyks, Siberians, Eskimos, Caucus Muslims, etc.

bear11
QUOTE (Forummember @ Jul 23 2011, 12:24 PM) *
I think Japan will just do fine. If you have 0% economic grow with a declining population, that still means that the people are getting richer. Because the same amount of wealth is shared by less people.

And a declining population isnt a bad thing for a crowed country like Japan. More space for next generations.

But immigration will only cause trouble. Because with a declining original population, the immigrantes will take over after a couple of generations.

Exactly. Per capita income and per capita growth is more important for ordinary people, China is second largest economy in the world and Japan is third, but average Japanese is still 4 times richer than average Chinese.



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