Friends do you think N and S Korea can become one nation by 2020.I think it would be nice .

nope

not possible

maybe 2060

not prevent japan so then korean can it in 2010

Impossible.... the cost of stabilizing a United Korea is approximately 100 trillion bucks

NK's $hit economy has to grow first

2010 sounds good!

Germany is our only friend for reunification. Only they understand what it is like to be divided nation.

It depends on too many outside factors: the US, China, and possibly even Japan wants to have a say.

Unlikely

a truly united korea? 2075.

and their model will never work for Korea.

Off Topic: I've got pieces of the Berlin wall at home that I chipped off in 91 or whatever year that was

Maybe by next year with all these talks about nuclear wars...
Just kidding. -_-
lawlz

Especially now that the world is getting more competitive 'cause of globalization .

I think we'll have a better timeline when the current DPRK leader is gone. The next phase of leadership will tell alot.

looking at sk and nk relationships these last years I think it is becoming more possible every year

It is like saying "Should Pakistan and India become one nation by 2999" .

but what about the more pressing matter of chinese cultural theft?

Yeah I think China and Japan's culture came from Korea. Even english language came from Korea.

I think even white people originated from Korea.

you are wrong

How do you know? History is made by the victors.

no its not...pakistan and india dont wanto be united where as north and south korea do. Pakistanis and indians are also 2 different cultures, the majority in pakistan is muslim and their official language is urdu.

Both Pakistani and Hindus speak Hindi but Pakistanis write in Urdu while Indians write Hindi.

pakistanis are actually Indians but the Arab invaders converted them to muslim.

You mean the ' ginseng ' ?
Or bamboo salt ?

there are many ethnicities in India and most pakistanis speak punjabi not hindi.

The majority of people in Kalistan speak Punjabi.

so..?

if another world war breaks out and s.k. seizes the chance to take over n.k., then maybe korea will be united...

I've heard from a strategic studies chat group from one of my old universties that the South Korean and North Korean secret services branches of their militairies have been in increasing contact (secretively and unofficialy, of course) over the last decade and their activity is causing concern amongst Japan/China/America. They say this is what is causing all the stalemating that has been going on. The idea behind the romours is: South Korea holds off the three countries mentioned. North Korea keeps trying to perfect its nukes. When (if) eventual unification comes the country will have nukes. Japan will feel compelled to nuke up. Then Korea can say, "Hey we can't get rid of our nukes if we've got China to the west with nukes and Japan to the east with nukes." Then the international community will have to accept that these two countries have also joined the nuclear club and a peace of "mutually assured destruction" (MAD) will descend over East Asia.
True or not, I don't know. In strategic studies circles people who work in the secret service industry leak info sometimes but others believe the people who are leaking the information are actually government agents trying to send people's train of thought in the wrong direction. Or leaking correct information knowing people won't believe it so that the truth becomes more discredited .... Could mess up your head with that kind of thinking but life is a chess (or paduk) game; thinking ahead, deception etc etc. That aside, what do you think of the above mentioned scenario? Would three nuked-up powers be a good or bad thing for East Asia?
By the way, I have also heard that Japan already has limited nuclear capability but the missiles aren't assembled so they aren't breaking international non-proliferation laws. Just keeping the components for future emergencies.

^wild conspiracy theories

That's an interesting theory. Not only that, it's entirely logical. Wait for the DPRK to make nukes and obtain other kinds of illegal goodies that will benefit 대한민국, while the ROK bolsters up it's budget to prepare for the reunification. Perfect! Yeah, we got it all in the bag. I bet the reunification date is all ready written and all planned out. We just need to wait or raid the Blue House and find the documents for the exact date. Ah, the two Koreas working together... *sniff* just gives me a ray of hope.

i believe this is not likely, as china will try to prevent reunification.

I can see China trading North Korea to the Western world in exchange for Taiwan. But then again Taiwan is more important to the West than North Korea is unless they get nukes that can strike the US.

Interesting trade. Could benefit China to have a functioning democratic semi-autonomous province, unlike Hong Kong which never had a democratic state under the British, within its borders. (Aside: I know some may laugh at my calling Taiwan a "functioning" democracy with all the in-fighting, but it's still working it out.) But China would need to transfer more troops to the north for awhile in case of a break down in the north of a newly unified Korea.
The two Koreas would have to agree on keeping their borders closed for a number of years (10 - 20 years? more?) until the North had a chance to bring its economy up to a level closer to that of South Korea. This would minimize a mass exodus of northerners to the south. At the same time it would mean US forces could not be positioned in the north and that may keep China feeling a little more secure about the situation. Hopefully after 20 years or so when the borders are opened slowly the newly unified country would have a large military that is more technologicaly advanced and armed with a limited number of nukes. At that point the US would have less excuse to stay, appeasing China even more. A friend and I were talking over this scenario last night over a couple of beers and he brought up the Japan dilemma. What would Japan (the power-brokers, not the common people) feel about this situation? How could they leave this scenario feeling more secure. To be realistic, for this scenario to play out all the actors (China, Japan, US and of course the Koreas) would have to leave feeling that they are at least a little better off than they were before. You can say, "Yeah well fu-k so and so if they don't come out of this well," but that's not going to make this situation plausible. Then there's Russia. My friend said they would have to get something out of this too. How about a pipeline straight through the Koreas,under the Korea Straight, and on to Japan? Two more massive markets for its petroleum industry.
BTW sorry my posts are too long. Busy and don't have time to keep updating them so I let it all out in one spew.

Korea will be united soon after Kim Jung Il is dead. I don't think his son will live up the expectations. The Great leader was there because of the war, the Dear leader was there also because of the war. The son on the other hand lives in a wonderful life. He will, one day realize there's no use for war with SK.

Cheers to United Corea in 2020.

Ya i think it would be nice too, that way your military units will be larger & you know the old saying.
2 brains are better than 1.

For a united Korea

1. North Korean economy/industrial infrastructure have to be brought up at least to the Southeast Asian level (10~20 years if the SK corporations feel generous enough)
2. China has to agree (???)
3. Japan has to agree (???)
4. United States has to agree (???)
5. The two nations have to be culturally rejoined at least partially (5~10 years)
6. Planning of restructuring of political organization (like provinces, districts, cities, etc.) (5~10 years)
7. Restructuring of political organization (10~20 years)

And of course North Korea would have to effectively want to reunite, which can take forever.

So, in the best of best scenario, it would take at least 30~40 years for complete reunification.

But because of 2~4, it could take quite literally forever or even impossible.

Says who? When Kim Jong-Il is dead and the new leader takes over (if it's one of his sons, it'll be a leader born in the 70's or 80's) it's a new ballgame. If the new leader has a mind like Gorbachev, then there's the potential for the two Koreas to form their own future, while simultaneously giving the middle finger to any possible intereference from countries 2, 3, and 4.

You gotta think more practically though. If by an awesome luck that the KJI's sucessor is a good dude, and we start on our way onto reunification, the popular political scenario is that the three countries (U.S. China & Japan) will try to interfere with us as much as possible. We're talking economic/political/ and even military pressure here. If we give them the 'middle finger', then there's no saying what would happen.

For China, the best scenario would be China absorbing North Korea.

For Japan and U.S., the best scenario would be a neutralized North Korea occupied in the same sense as Afghanistan is by U.S. troops.

Either way, there's no hope for reunification. Unless we tread carefully to outstep all three of them. And it's going to be a long hard way.

wont happen anytime soon cuz US wont allow a unfied korea. US has no more interests when koreas unite.

and i dont think china wants anything to do with NK. they are more of a liability. notice china is trying to distance itself from NK every time Kim does some odd.

i think unfication will happen when the US leaves korea.

Take this into consideration:

Neither N. Korea nor S. Korea wants to compromise on the issue of reunification. S. Koreans want N. Korea to be assimilated into itself and vice versa. So really, the only way there will be a unification is if N. Korea or S. Korea collapses or a military take-over, in which case they're both worse off.

I'm quite aware of what China, Japan and the US *want*, but if the two Koreas ever think alike I don't see them compromising with the bigger powers on anything short of military action. I think the Koreas would overlook any possible economic or political pressure because they would know the pressure is coming from self-interest of the bigger powers. And I can't imagine a scenario where Korea's neighbours would use military pressure to prevent any unification.

I agree that unification is a long way away, but I'm just saying that when the two Koreas want to unite on their terms, they'll unite, regardless of the wants of China, Japan and the US.

Are Urinara and Bumfromkorea the same person.

Haha, and basically I'm arguing with myself? No, I'm pretty sure we're two very different people.

Urinara, I'm sure that if both Koreas really wanted to, they can just ignore the regional powers and reunite. But what I'm worried about is that if we take that path, something crazy might just happen. And if not, we would be souring our relations with basically two biggest kids in the block. My 'prediction' is the one that is most optimal (albeit nearly impossible and too wimpy )

^ The two of you have very similair writting styles (i.e. choice of words, sentence structure ...) so I got a little suspicious. If you're not: Sorry about the accusation. If you are: Try to jumble up your styles a bit.

For one thing, I write "US" and bumfromkorea writes "U.S."

Other than that, our similar writing styles just means we're both articulate.



And I can't imagine what that "something crazy" thing might be. The world pretty much knows a democratic united Korea (to put it bluntly, the North joining the South) would pose little or no threat to both China and Japan. China especially should just shut up and be happy that most of the American troops would leave the Korean peninsula and that the NK refugees would most likely migrate to the South if anything rather than to China.

I just can't see any way for China and Japan to justify to the international community why Korea shouldn't unite, other than for their own self-interest.

This is a good idea.

2010.. or north-korea go into China..

so true

Korean reunification seems possible only in the far future..beyond 2040 at least.

The comparison to Germany is valid, but Korea and Germany are very different.

First of all, culturally, East and West Germany was much more integrated than North and South Korea. East Germans heard Western radio/news, many were able to travel to West Berlin before the Wall, and generally at least had a sense of what West Germany was like. North Korea is nothing like this.

Secondly, economically, North Korea is in a much worse state than East Germany. East Germany was the most successful, most developed economy of the Eastern Bloc, and West Germany was the world's third largest economy, Europe's strongest economic power. Despite this, after reunification Germany has had a massive bill upgrading the East's infrastructure and raising its productivity. It still suffers from chronic unemployment.
By contrast, North Korea is probably one of the world's most impoverished economies. It can't even feed its people regularly. South Korea, although a highly developed "East Asian Tiger", it's no West Germany. South Korea's GDP/Capita is still only like 1/3~1/2 of the Developed West. It definately does not have the financial/structural capacity to absorb the North.

Finally, the population ratio. West Germany was 60 million, East Germany was 20 million. By contrast, South Korea is 48 million and North Korea is something like 24 million. The ratio is far worse for Korea. This further adds to the economic problem.

Korea is now just barely moving into what Germany accomplished during the 1970s detente, with its "sunshine policy". This includes organized travel, aid programs, educational programs, etc.

Probably what is best for the region and best for Korea is the gradual reform of N. Korea (a la China) and letting it catch up with the South Korean economy. Peaceful economic/diplomatic cooperation than can lead to a peace treaty and disarmament of the border. Perhaps after this there can be a loose confederation (perhaps like the EU?) which could eventually lead to unification (or not).

Considering N Korea is about to test it's Nukes a united Korea by 2020 seems a distant possibility .

Both India and Pakistan are multi-racial countries.