http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/news...1600058,00.html

The author is a retired ROC(Taiwan) professional diplomat, former envoy & consultant to the UN.

Good read...


金正日試爆核子裝置，要使美國不能輕視北韓，結果惹毛了許多別的國家。聯合國安全理事會前晚以十五對零票一致通過決議案，援引《聯合國憲章》第七章第四十一條，對北韓實施新的制裁。

細讀長達十七段的制裁內容，嚴格而言，不能算太嚴厲；美國只得到精神勝利，波頓大使極力主張的海上攔截所有進出北韓的貨輪，被灌水後完全變了樣。國際貿易與旅行的限制，只及於核武原料與涉及核試的官員。老實說，決議案只為敷衍華府，對平壤沒有太大影響。


但日本卻跳出來大表不滿。首相安倍晉三立即下令，停止所有與北韓的雙邊貿易，並禁止北韓貨輪進出日本港口，使十六艘北韓輪船必須中止裝卸貨物，立即離港。昨天他又在東京表示，日本還在考慮其他更嚴厲的措施，本周內將陸續宣布。

日本有美國的核子「保護傘」，軍力遠強於北韓。金正日膽子再大，也不會瘋到要用核子彈去攻擊日本。安倍為何採取如此手段，彷彿大禍將臨的樣子呢？

這問題要從日本國內政治觀點去看。小泉純一郎擔任首相的八年裏，故意不理會中共與南韓的抗議，堅持參拜東京靖國神社，用意非常清楚，就是要喚醒所謂「大和民族魂」，為修改麥克亞瑟元帥代為起草的「和平憲法」預作準備，其最終目的就是要恢復軍國主義，與中國大陸一爭短長。

美國有些右派政治觀察家認為，布希總統六年任期裏，坐視中共崛起，束手無策，美國對亞洲政策一無是處。唯一可資稱道的，是與日本的同盟關係更加親密了，並舉日本海上自衛隊已派軍艦到伊拉克外海助陣，作為證明。

但如從日本自私的國家利益出發，也可說小泉利用了布希，去對抗崛起的中國大陸，希望美國圍堵住中共，讓日本達成第二次世界大戰未能做到的「東亞霸主」美夢。這兩種南轅北轍的看法，見仁見智，要看今後幾年東亞局勢如何發展，只有歷史能做出最後判斷。

小泉交棒給安倍晉三，後者並非不認同前任的大政方針，只因上任伊始，急求表現成績，所以把修復與中、韓關係列為施政首要目標。安倍蜻蜓點水式去北京與首爾的訪問，明眼人一望即知，其中必有暗盤交易，與東京故意放出的煙幕彈，說安倍如何有自主性，完全不符。

是什麼暗盤呢？說穿了一錢不值。就是安倍含含糊糊地為日本二戰前的侵略行為，說兩句不著邊際的「遺憾」一類的話。但私下向北京與首爾解釋，為了給小泉「留點面子」，他作為新任首相，可以秘密承諾，他自己不會再去靖國神社參拜，但要求不得對外宣布。這種說詞，西方人不會懂，東方人卻心領神會。相信胡錦濤與盧武鉉是在權衡得失後，才接受了這份拿面子換裏子，兩不吃虧的交易。

安倍下一步怎麼走，才是他真正的困難。他雖是第一位戰後出生的首相，但歷經「終戰」六十一年的和平歲月，日本社會結構變遷之大，無人敢預測修憲能否得到多數民眾的支持。

日本雖在急速高齡化，但最新統計顯示，六十四歲以下的人仍佔總人口四分之三左右，亦即這些人對二次大戰毫無印象。日本女性早已走出家庭，每年離婚人數約為當年結婚人數三分之一。三、四十歲以下不論男女，有很大比率不想結婚生子，只盡情享受生活，買名牌衣飾，出國旅遊，把賺來的錢花光，以致國內儲蓄率大幅減低，影響經濟成長率。

年輕一代的人，會贊成日本重回軍國主義嗎？右派政治領袖從中曾根康弘、森喜朗到石原慎太郎，嘴吧雖叫得震天價響，卻都在等候別人出來提議修憲，因為他們沒有膽量挑戰修憲的高門檻。日本憲法第二章第九條，明白規定放棄戰爭作為對外手段，不得建立海陸空軍。這一條雖已被歷任政府用偷跑方式繞過，變得有名無實，究竟條文依舊存在，礙手礙腳。

日本如要修憲，門檻之高與台灣相同。李登輝主導修改中華民國憲法時，可能就把日本憲法有關條文照抄了一遍。依據日本憲法第九章第九十六條，修憲案必須經國會參眾兩院各三分之二以上議員表決通過，然後交付全國選民複決。如經國會同意，複決案的投票也可與全國性選舉合併辦理。兩年前陳水扁的「選舉綁公投」，即抄襲這點而來。複決時須有具投票權國民半數以上投票，而贊成票又超過半數時，修憲案才正式通過。

和許多瞭解日本政情的朋友談天，都認為日本老一輩與年輕人之間，確實有「代溝」存在。右派政客不敢提議修憲，因為萬一通不過，以後就永無機會了。安倍需要更多時間，去培養民意支持度，還要國際環境恰好配合。到時日本選民是否同意，仍有待證明。

日本也不可能發展核武，不但國內輿論不容，也確實無此必要。由此可見，日本政客為北韓核試而大聲叫囂，醉翁之意不在酒，另有目的。

安倍面臨的處境，沒有解套之法。任何要使日本成為「正常國家」的企圖，不但將破壞國內繁榮與和平，也必將引起包括中國大陸與南韓在內各鄰邦的強烈反對。小泉八年來沒有做到的事，即使再給安倍八年，他恐怕也做不到

It's going to be 1937 all over again.

The history always repeats itself. Knowing the history help you planning ahead for the unavoidable.

Only this time we will be ready!

Except this time, China will have the upper hand in an all out war.

Tell that to Korea.

Then you should have said "it's 1910 all over again." But I think Korea can stand on its own against Japan now.

I don't know about that. I think Japan despite not having any nuclear weapons still possess a very hi tech and powerful military. Korea in the condition it is in right now won't stand much of a chance.

If the South falls, the North will save its brother by dropping a nuke on Tokyo. That my friend is what nukes are for.

And how many nukes do you think north korea has? One nuke isn't going to win a war for you. North Korea will basically depend on that one nuke to save them and it won't happen. The odds are still against them. The two koreas would have to be united to even stand a fighting chance against japan. And mind you I don't like japan but Im not going to deny the facts.

North Korea only needs a few nukes to be dropped on Tokyo and 10% of the Japanese population is gone. Then Korea has to evacuate its naval ships through the rivers into more fortified positions and fight a defensive war. Japan has to invade Korea , which is even more difficult than the PRC invading ROC.

But the population isn't the ones that are going to be fighting the north korean military. In any kind of a conflict if you want to get to the country first you have to cripple there army and it won't do north korea any good just to drop a nuke in tokyo because the japanese military would still be fine and well.

Yes but doing so would cripple the Japanese economy. But nuking a military fortification can be an alternative.

I hear what your saying. Lets suppose that we go along with your theory and north korea dropped a total of 5 nukes spread out all over japan. What are they going to do after? Yes the japanese economy would suffer a crippling blow but that doesn't mean there military is going to falter if anything its just going to seal the north koreans fate because then it will just come down to japans military hardware versus the north korean military hardware. Its not going to be much of a contest.

Japan has said in the past that "an attack on Japan is an attack on USA".

Well an attack on N. Korea is an attack on both China and Russia !!!

Everyone seems to be forgetting that it is a very, very, very long way from exploding a nuke in a mine shaft to building a device that can be delivered by a missile.

I'm still not convinced that NK actually did detonate a bomb.

N. Korea did test a Nuke :


US Confirms North Korea Blast Was Nuclear
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15287725/

US confirmed it just for the UN sanction.

hm.. nk dont need a "device that can be delivered by a missile".

just only 10-20 new nuclear "tests" in the air and we all go into nuclear hell.

(koreans, japanese and chinese at first..)

nk-goverment give a $hit about own and forign people, do you think they get more care about in the future?

why would they commit suicide? you make no sense.

So, lets just say that Japan attacks South Korea, whom would the U.S support since both of them are its East Asian allies?

why not?

i dont think that kim's have god chance to survive international invasation.

like all other commi-clans..

^ Everyday it's something. Warned for double-posting.
Congrats, you've reached 100%. Enjoy 10 days to think it over.

If Kim wants to Nuke Japan and U.S bases then kudos to him.
Personally it saves us the trouble of doing it ourselves.

why would japan attack south korea

if they attack north korea than theyre in for some trouble since north korea has sleeper agents in japan ready to wreak havoc

They won't, its just a hypothetical question.

I've never heard about that.

China is busy laying barbed wires along sino-korea boarder to prevent a possible refugee rush...

North korea isn't going to attack anyone lol. U.S is just worried that NK is going to sell nukes to terrorists.

the us should be more worried about the pakistanis

not really. As long as musharaff is in power, Pakistan will be a stable cooperative ally. U.S is hell bent on taking down bin laden, with or without pakistani approval. Bush said it a month ago.

Why do N. Korea refugees always run to China instead and not to South Korea ?

S. Koreans are the brothers and they will be accepted there.

i agree. i think they're just trying to scare people. nk govt. does tell their country to prepare for possible warfare with america. i think some of this (nuke tests) is out of insecurity. but china is ready to put sanctions. but i don't agree with the sanction on luxury goods. like wtf. kim jong il likes his cognac too much though
however china seems like in ways, they are still trying to honor ties between the two countries , by not being more forceful with their sanctions.

dang. don't you know anything about the DMZ? sure, the chinese/nk border, you can get shot but comparing to the DMZ line with south korea/north korea, its much more relaxed. its one of the most heavily guarded borders in the world. to get to china, you swim across a river thats really not that wide nor deep. and bribes happen sometimes, and its less guarded. don't you think if they had an option that they would go to sk where at least they can speak the language?

any north koreans i heard of that is in south korea is brought over by either humanitarian organizations or christian missionaries AFTER having first escaping to china and then america and finally move to south korea. but even so, many of the groups may send them to the U.S. and those people would stay there.